SHANGHAI SIPG v 
Chengdu Better City
Match statistics
| SHANGHAI SIPG | Chengdu Better City | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 518 | Passes | 260 |
| 67% | Possession % | 33% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 81%
- Over 2.5
- 58%
- Over 3.5
- 36%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- SHANGHAI SIPG 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.61 – 1.41
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Chengdu Better City
Why this price?
Back Chengdu Better City to win at 3.40 with Betfair.
Our model puts the chance at 33% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 29%; we judge it at 30%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.30. The offered 3.40 implies only 29%, so the price is 3.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.33 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.61, Chengdu Better City 1.41.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | SHANGHAI SIPG | 41.6% | 2.40 | 2.10 Dafabet | 47.6% | -6.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.4% | 3.93 | 4.00 Betfair | 25.0% | +0.5 |
| Match result | Chengdu Better City | 32.9% | 3.04 | 3.40 Betfair | 29.4% | +3.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80.9% | 1.24 | 1.15 Betano | 87.0% | -6.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 19.1% | 5.24 | 5.75 BetVictor | 17.4% | +1.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | -8.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 42.1% | 2.38 | 2.70 Betfair | 37.0% | +5.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 35.5% | 2.81 | 2.20 Bet365 | 45.5% | -9.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | +4.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 61.0% | 1.64 | 1.44 William Hill | 69.4% | -8.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 39.0% | 2.56 | 2.70 BetVictor | 37.0% | +2.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
SHANGHAI SIPG favoured against Chengdu Better City
Our model makes SHANGHAI SIPG 42% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Chengdu Better City at 33%. The goal projection is 1.61 for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.41 for Chengdu Better City — a slight edge to SHANGHAI SIPG on expected output. A combined 3.01 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 1-0 7%
- 2-0 6%
This season
| SHANGHAI SIPG | Chengdu Better City | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Played | 30 |
| 14-8-8 | W-D-L | 15-7-8 |
| 1.67 | Pts / game | 1.73 |
| 1.87 | Goals for / game | 1.77 |
| 1.23 | Goals against / game | 1.27 |
| 63% | Over 2.5 | 53% |
| 70% | BTTS | 57% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 23% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 23% |
| 7-5-3 | Home record | 8-3-4 |
| 7-3-5 | Away record | 7-4-4 |
| W4 | Streak | L4 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. SHANGHAI SIPG · Chengdu Better City
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.8 | Shots | 10.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.8 | Shots on target | 2.8 |
| 5.8 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 4.00 | Cards | 1.33 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 61 | Possession % | 50 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 13.0 | Shots | 10.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 3.5 |
| 3.0 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 3.67 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 39 | Possession % | 50 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| SHANGHAI SIPG | Metric | Chengdu Better City |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 (better) | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 1.55 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.07 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.75 (better) | Shots on target | 3.40 |
| 15.00 (better) | Total shots | 13.20 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Corners | 4.00 |
| 56.0 (better) | Possession % | 54.8 |
| 488 (better) | Passes | 452 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.25 (better) | Fouls | 13.40 |
| 3.25 | Offsides | 2.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.25 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.25 |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- SHANGHAI SIPG wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Chengdu Better City wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 33%
- SHANGHAI SIPG v Chengdu Better City3–02026-10-18
- Chengdu Better City v SHANGHAI SIPG0–12026-05-19
- Chengdu Better City v SHANGHAI SIPG4–12025-08-30
Chinese Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beijing Guoan | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | +22 | 55 | Beijing Guoan won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Shandong Luneng | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | +11 | 53 | Shandong Luneng won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Chengdu Better City | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | +15 | 52 | Chengdu Better City won 0 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Dalian Zhixing | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | +5 | 52 | Dalian Zhixing won 5 of the last 5 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | +19 | 50 | SHANGHAI SIPG won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Shanghai Shenhua | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | +17 | 50 | Shanghai Shenhua won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Yunnan Yukun | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -2 | 43 | Yunnan Yukun won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Hangzhou Greentown | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | +1 | 42 | Hangzhou Greentown won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Tianjin Teda | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | +2 | 41 | Tianjin Teda won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Qingdao Youth Island | 30 | 8 | 15 | 7 | -10 | 39 | Qingdao Youth Island won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | -4 | 36 | Chongqing Tongliang Long won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Henan Jianye | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 | Henan Jianye won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -12 | 33 | Sichuan Jiuniu won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Shenyang Urban | 30 | 8 | 5 | 17 | -16 | 29 | Shenyang Urban won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 30 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -12 | 27 | Wuhan Three Towns won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -28 | 22 | Qingdao Jonoon won 0 of the last 5 |