Shandong Luneng v 
Hangzhou Greentown
Match statistics
| Shandong Luneng | Hangzhou Greentown | |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Shots | 16 |
| 10 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
| 2 | Offsides | 3 |
| 409 | Passes | 394 |
| 50% | Possession % | 50% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 94%
- Over 2.5
- 82%
- Over 3.5
- 65%
- Both score
- 79%
- Model pick
- Shandong Luneng 51%
- Likely score
- 2-1 7%
- Expected goals
- 2.54 – 1.94
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Shandong Luneng -0.75
Why this price?
Back Shandong Luneng -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.87 with Marathonbet — Shandong Luneng must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 46% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 69%; we judge it at 60%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.67. The offered 1.87 implies only 53%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Shandong Luneng 2.54, Hangzhou Greentown 1.94.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Shandong Luneng | 51.1% | 1.96 | 1.80 Dafabet | 55.6% | -4.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 19.4% | 5.17 | 4.50 Betfair | 22.2% | -2.9 |
| Match result | Hangzhou Greentown | 29.5% | 3.39 | 4.00 BetVictor | 25.0% | +4.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 94.1% | 1.06 | 1.09 Betano | 91.7% | +2.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 5.9% | 16.87 | 9.00 Bet365 | 11.1% | -5.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 82.4% | 1.21 | 1.30 Betano | 76.9% | +5.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 17.6% | 5.69 | 3.90 BetVictor | 25.6% | -8.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | +8.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | -12.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.34 Betano | 74.6% | +4.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 20.8% | 4.80 | 3.50 BetVictor | 28.6% | -7.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Shandong Luneng favoured against Hangzhou Greentown
Our model makes Shandong Luneng 51% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 19% and Hangzhou Greentown at 30%. The goal projection is 2.54 for Shandong Luneng against 1.94 for Hangzhou Greentown — a substantial edge to Shandong Luneng on expected output. A combined 4.48 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 82% and both teams to score at 79%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 3-1 6%
- 1-1 6%
- 3-2 6%
This season
| Shandong Luneng | Hangzhou Greentown | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Played | 30 |
| 16-5-9 | W-D-L | 12-6-12 |
| 1.77 | Pts / game | 1.40 |
| 2.00 | Goals for / game | 1.83 |
| 1.63 | Goals against / game | 1.80 |
| 70% | Over 2.5 | 70% |
| 73% | BTTS | 63% |
| 13% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 23% |
| 9-4-2 | Home record | 8-3-4 |
| 7-1-7 | Away record | 4-3-8 |
| W3 | Streak | W2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Shandong Luneng · Hangzhou Greentown
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 18.3 | Shots | 16.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Shots on target | 7.0 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.75 |
| 15.8 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 50 | Possession % | 47 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 14.0 | Shots | 17.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 7.0 |
| 4.3 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 4.00 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 11.5 | Fouls | 11.5 |
| 50 | Possession % | 54 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Shandong Luneng | Metric | Hangzhou Greentown |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | Goals scored | 2.80 (better) |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.84 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.31 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.00 | Shots on target | 6.40 (better) |
| 13.75 | Total shots | 15.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.00 | Corners | 5.40 (better) |
| 48.8 | Possession % | 51.0 (better) |
| 430 (better) | Passes | 380 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.25 (better) | Fouls | 11.60 |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 2.80 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Shandong Luneng wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Hangzhou Greentown wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 4.67
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 67%
- Shandong Luneng v Hangzhou Greentown5–02026-10-17
- Hangzhou Greentown v Shandong Luneng4–12026-05-20
- Hangzhou Greentown v Shandong Luneng2–22025-10-18
Chinese Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beijing Guoan | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | +22 | 55 | Beijing Guoan won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Shandong Luneng | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | +11 | 53 | Shandong Luneng won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Chengdu Better City | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | +15 | 52 | Chengdu Better City won 0 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Dalian Zhixing | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | +5 | 52 | Dalian Zhixing won 5 of the last 5 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | +19 | 50 | SHANGHAI SIPG won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Shanghai Shenhua | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | +17 | 50 | Shanghai Shenhua won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Yunnan Yukun | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -2 | 43 | Yunnan Yukun won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Hangzhou Greentown | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | +1 | 42 | Hangzhou Greentown won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Tianjin Teda | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | +2 | 41 | Tianjin Teda won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Qingdao Youth Island | 30 | 8 | 15 | 7 | -10 | 39 | Qingdao Youth Island won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | -4 | 36 | Chongqing Tongliang Long won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Henan Jianye | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 | Henan Jianye won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -12 | 33 | Sichuan Jiuniu won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Shenyang Urban | 30 | 8 | 5 | 17 | -16 | 29 | Shenyang Urban won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 30 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -12 | 27 | Wuhan Three Towns won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -28 | 22 | Qingdao Jonoon won 0 of the last 5 |