Sestao River v Espanyol

2–24–3 aet13th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sestao River		Espanyol
17	Shots	16
9	Shots on target	6
7	Corners	12
19	Fouls	24
2	Yellow cards	4
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	1
276	Passes	458
39%	Possession %	61%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Espanyol 40%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.23 – 1.38

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sestao River	32.8%	3.05	7.50 Bet365	13.3%	+19.4
Match result	Draw	27.5%	3.64	4.60 Dafabet	21.7%	+5.7
Match result	Espanyol	39.7%	2.52	1.48 Dafabet	67.6%	-27.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.1%	1.35	1.24 BetVictor	80.6%	-6.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.9%	3.87	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+3.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.5%	2.06	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	-8.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.5%	1.94	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	+3.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.7%	3.75	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-8.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.3%	1.36	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+6.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.7%	1.86	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+2.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.3%	2.16	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-3.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sestao River v Espanyol: too close to call

Our model makes Sestao River 33% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 27% and Espanyol at 40%. The goal projection is 1.23 for Sestao River against 1.38 for Espanyol — a slight edge to Espanyol on expected output. A combined 2.61 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Sestao River and Espanyol
Sestao River		Espanyol
1	Played	12
0-1-0	W-D-L	3-3-6
1.00	Pts / game	1.00
2.00	Goals for / game	1.08
2.00	Goals against / game	1.17
100%	Over 2.5	50%
100%	BTTS	58%
0%	Clean sheets	33%
0%	Failed to score	17%
0-1-0	Home record	1-2-3
0-0-0	Away record	2-1-3
D1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sestao River · Espanyol

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.0	Shots	13.0
9.0	Shots on target	3.6
7.0	Corners	5.3
2.00	Cards	3.29
19.0	Fouls	15.6
39	Possession %	49
—	xG	0.83
1 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	14.8
6.0	Shots on target	5.5
12.0	Corners	6.8
4.00	Cards	3.67
24.0	Fouls	11.5
61	Possession %	51
—	xG	1.31
1 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sestao River	Metric	Espanyol
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
	Expected goals (xG)	1.11
	Big chances
	Shots on target	3.60
	Total shots	13.40
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	3.60
	Possession %	44.4
	Passes	364
	Tackles
	Fouls	15.60
	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	2.60
	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sestao River wins: 0
Draws: 1
Espanyol wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Sestao River v Espanyol2–22026-10-27