No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
22.4%
4.47
6.00 Betfair
16.7%
+5.7
Match result
Draw
29.0%
3.45
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
+5.1
Match result
Universitatea Craiova
48.7%
2.05
1.62 Betano
61.7%
-13.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
65.5%
1.53
1.30 Betano
76.9%
-11.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
34.5%
2.90
3.75 Bet365
26.7%
+7.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
38.1%
2.63
1.90 Bet365
52.6%
-14.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
61.9%
1.61
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
+10.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
18.3%
5.46
3.30 Betfair
30.3%
-12.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
81.7%
1.22
1.37 Betano
73.0%
+8.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
43.1%
2.32
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
-9.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
56.9%
1.76
1.95 Betano
51.3%
+5.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Universitatea Craiova favoured against Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Our model makes Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 22% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 29% and Universitatea Craiova at 49%. The goal projection is 0.84 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe against 1.37 for Universitatea Craiova — a substantial edge to Universitatea Craiova on expected output. A combined 2.21 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
0-1 14%
1-1 13%
0-0 12%
0-2 10%
1-2 9%
This season
Season records for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Universitatea Craiova
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Metric
Universitatea Craiova
0.80
Goals scored
2.40 (better)
2.00
Goals conceded
0.20 (better)
1.50
Expected goals (xG)
1.81 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.50
Shots on target
7.25 (better)
12.00
Total shots
18.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
2.50
Corners
5.00 (better)
49.3
Possession %
53.0 (better)
452
Passes
472 (better)
—
Tackles
—
13.75
Fouls
10.50 (better)
1.33
Offsides
0.75 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.75
Yellow cards
1.25 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe v 
Universitatea Craiova