SCR Altach v Ried

9th1–16th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
SCR Altach		Ried
17	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	6
11	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
451	Passes	420
52%	Possession %	48%
1.31	xG	0.58

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Ried 36%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.31

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.4%	2.15	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+5.6
Match result	SCR Altach	35.9%	2.78	2.35 Betano	42.6%	-6.6
Match result	Draw	27.6%	3.62	3.70 BetVictor	27.0%	+0.6
Match result	Ried	36.4%	2.74	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	+4.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.9%	1.35	1.22 Bet365	82.0%	-8.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.1%	3.83	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+3.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.2%	2.08	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-9.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.8%	1.93	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+6.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.4%	3.79	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-9.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.6%	1.36	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+6.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.6%	1.87	1.60 William Hill	62.5%	-8.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

SCR Altach v Ried: too close to call

Our model makes SCR Altach 36% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 28% and Ried at 36%. The goal projection is 1.29 for SCR Altach against 1.31 for Ried — almost nothing to Ried on expected output. A combined 2.60 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for SCR Altach and Ried
SCR Altach		Ried
12	Played	12
3-1-8	W-D-L	4-4-4
0.83	Pts / game	1.33
0.92	Goals for / game	1.75
1.67	Goals against / game	1.83
67%	Over 2.5	67%
42%	BTTS	92%
8%	Clean sheets	8%
50%	Failed to score	0%
3-1-2	Home record	3-1-2
0-0-6	Away record	1-3-2
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. SCR Altach · Ried

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.8	Shots	12.3
3.6	Shots on target	5.3
3.0	Corners	3.5
1.40	Cards	2.17
11.4	Fouls	10.2
46	Possession %	46
1.01	xG	2.03
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.2	Shots	20.7
3.8	Shots on target	5.7
5.6	Corners	6.8
1.20	Cards	1.70
12.0	Fouls	11.3
54	Possession %	54
1.24	xG	1.92
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SCR Altach	Metric	Ried
1.80	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.15	Expected goals (xG)	2.55 (better)
	Big chances
3.25	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
13.75 (better)	Total shots	12.75
	Touches in opp. box
4.25 (better)	Corners	3.25
49.3 (better)	Possession %	38.8
384 (better)	Passes	339
	Tackles
9.75	Fouls	8.50 (better)
3.50	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.75
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

SCR Altach wins: 2
Draws: 1
Ried wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.60
Over 2.5: 40%
Both score: 40%

SCR Altach v Ried1–12026-10-31
SCR Altach v Ried2–02026-05-16
Ried v SCR Altach3–22026-04-03
Ried v SCR Altach3–02025-12-13
SCR Altach v Ried1–02025-08-09

Austrian Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rapid Vienna	12	11	0	1	+30	33	Rapid Vienna won 5 of the last 5
2	Red Bull Salzburg	12	9	3	0	+24	30	Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of the last 5
3	Lask Linz	12	8	1	3	+15	25	Lask Linz won 3 of the last 5
4	TSV Hartberg	12	6	2	4	+4	20	TSV Hartberg won 4 of the last 5
5	Sturm Graz	12	5	4	3	+5	19	Sturm Graz won 2 of the last 5
6	Ried	12	4	4	4	-1	16	Ried won 2 of the last 5
7	WSG Wattens	12	3	4	5	-3	13	WSG Wattens won 1 of the last 5
8	Austria Lustenau	12	3	2	7	-15	11	Austria Lustenau won 1 of the last 5
9	SCR Altach	12	3	1	8	-9	10	SCR Altach won 2 of the last 5
10	Grazer AK	12	2	4	6	-20	10	Grazer AK won 0 of the last 5
11	Austria Vienna	12	2	2	8	-12	8	Austria Vienna won 0 of the last 5
12	Wolfsberger AC	12	1	3	8	-18	6	Wolfsberger AC won 0 of the last 5