Scotland v Switzerland

0–3

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Scotland		Switzerland
2	Shots	23
0	Shots on target	9
2	Corners	6
14	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	0
1	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
216	Passes	732
23%	Possession %	77%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 62%
Over 2.5: 35%
Over 3.5: 16%
Both score: 41%

Model pick: Switzerland 47%
Likely score: 0-1 15%
Expected goals: 0.80 – 1.29

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Scotland	22.3%	4.49	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	+0.0
Match result	Draw	30.4%	3.29	—	—	—
Match result	Switzerland	47.4%	2.11	1.88 Betano	53.2%	-5.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	62.5%	1.60	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-7.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	37.5%	2.67	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+5.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	34.7%	2.88	2.22 Betano	45.0%	-10.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	65.3%	1.53	1.70 Betano	58.8%	+6.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	15.9%	6.29	4.20 BetVictor	23.8%	-7.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	84.1%	1.19	1.26 Betano	79.4%	+4.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	40.6%	2.46	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-9.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	59.4%	1.68	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+5.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Switzerland favoured against Scotland

Our model makes Scotland 22% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 30% and Switzerland at 47%. The goal projection is 0.80 for Scotland against 1.29 for Switzerland — a clear edge to Switzerland on expected output. A combined 2.09 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 35% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 15%; 1-1 14%; 0-0 13%; 0-2 10%; 1-0 9%

This season

Season records for Scotland and Switzerland
Scotland		Switzerland
4	Played	4
1-1-2	W-D-L	4-0-0
1.00	Pts / game	3.00
0.75	Goals for / game	2.75
1.25	Goals against / game	0.25
50%	Over 2.5	100%
25%	BTTS	25%
50%	Clean sheets	75%
50%	Failed to score	0%
0-0-2	Home record	2-0-0
1-1-0	Away record	2-0-0
L1	Streak	W4

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Scotland · Switzerland

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	19.8
5.3	Shots on target	8.3
4.0	Corners	5.8
1.75	Cards	0.25
14.0	Fouls	10.0
47	Possession %	65
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.5	Shots	4.3
3.3	Shots on target	0.8
4.0	Corners	2.0
3.00	Cards	3.00
16.0	Fouls	13.3
54	Possession %	35
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Scotland	Metric	Switzerland
1.00	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
0.80	Goals conceded	0.80
0.87	Expected goals (xG)	1.13 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	5.40 (better)
13.20 (better)	Total shots	11.60
	Touches in opp. box
4.40 (better)	Corners	3.20
48.8	Possession %	50.4 (better)
466	Passes	512 (better)
	Tackles
15.20	Fouls	15.20
0.60 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.40	Yellow cards	1.20 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Scotland wins: 0
Draws: 0
Switzerland wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Scotland v Switzerland0–32026-09-29