SC Genemuiden won 3 of the last 3WWW3–2Dordrecht won 0 of the last 1L
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
SC Genemuiden
Dordrecht
13
Shots
19
9
Shots on target
5
2
Corners
9
13
Fouls
13
3
Yellow cards
2
—
Red cards
—
3
Offsides
0
216
Passes
456
32%
Possession %
68%
—
xG
—
49%
22%
29%
1 · SC GenemuidenXDordrecht · 2
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
50%
Both score
70%
Model pick
SC Genemuiden 49%
Likely score
1-1 9%
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.61
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
29.6%
3.38
2.75 William Hill
36.4%
-6.8
Match result
SC Genemuiden
48.7%
2.06
6.50 Betfair
15.4%
+33.3
Match result
Draw
21.9%
4.57
6.20 Dafabet
16.1%
+5.7
Match result
Dordrecht
29.5%
3.40
1.45 Bet365
69.0%
-39.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
88.8%
1.13
1.12 Bet365
89.3%
-0.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
11.3%
8.89
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
-5.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
71.4%
1.40
1.44 Bet365
69.4%
+1.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
28.6%
3.49
3.00 Betfair
33.3%
-4.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
50.5%
1.98
2.10 Bet365
47.6%
+2.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
49.5%
2.02
2.25 Bet365
44.4%
+5.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
70.4%
1.42
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+8.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
SC Genemuiden favoured against Dordrecht
Our model makes SC Genemuiden 49% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 22% and Dordrecht at 29%. The goal projection is 2.09 for SC Genemuiden against 1.61 for Dordrecht — a clear edge to SC Genemuiden on expected output. A combined 3.69 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SC Genemuiden
Metric
Dordrecht
2.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
2.60
Goals conceded
1.80 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
1.17
—
Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
4.00
—
Total shots
15.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
—
Corners
5.00
—
Possession %
50.4
—
Passes
428
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
14.60
—
Offsides
1.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
2.60
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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SC Genemuiden v 
Dordrecht