SC Freiburg v 
VfL Wolfsburg
Match statistics
| SC Freiburg | VfL Wolfsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 6 | Offsides | 0 |
| 507 | Passes | 337 |
| 61% | Possession % | 39% |
| 1.72 | xG | 1.48 |
- Over 1.5
- 88%
- Over 2.5
- 70%
- Over 3.5
- 49%
- Both score
- 69%
- Model pick
- SC Freiburg 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 2.00 – 1.60
Advised bets
VoidMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5SC Freiburg -1
Why this price?
Back SC Freiburg -1 on the Asian handicap at 1.72 with Betano — SC Freiburg must win by more than 1 goal.
Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 86%; we judge it at 65%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.54. The offered 1.72 implies only 58%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: SC Freiburg 2.00, VfL Wolfsburg 1.60.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | SC Freiburg | 46.9% | 2.13 | 1.67 Betano | 59.9% | -13.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.4% | 4.47 | 4.90 Dafabet | 20.4% | +2.0 |
| Match result | VfL Wolfsburg | 30.7% | 3.25 | 6.40 Dafabet | 15.6% | +15.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 87.9% | 1.14 | 1.13 Betano | 88.5% | -0.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 12.1% | 8.26 | 7.00 BetVictor | 14.3% | -2.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.42 Betano | 70.4% | -0.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 30.2% | 3.31 | 3.00 BetVictor | 33.3% | -3.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 48.5% | 2.06 | 2.02 Betano | 49.5% | -1.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.85 Betano | 54.1% | -2.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 69.5% | 1.44 | 1.53 Betano | 65.4% | +4.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 30.5% | 3.28 | 2.65 Betano | 37.7% | -7.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
SC Freiburg favoured against VfL Wolfsburg
Our model makes SC Freiburg 47% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 22% and VfL Wolfsburg at 31%. The goal projection is 2.00 for SC Freiburg against 1.60 for VfL Wolfsburg — a clear edge to SC Freiburg on expected output. A combined 3.60 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 9%
- 2-1 9%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-2 7%
- 3-1 6%
This season
| SC Freiburg | VfL Wolfsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 11 |
| 6-1-2 | W-D-L | 5-4-2 |
| 2.11 | Pts / game | 1.73 |
| 2.22 | Goals for / game | 2.36 |
| 1.11 | Goals against / game | 1.45 |
| 78% | Over 2.5 | 55% |
| 67% | BTTS | 64% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 18% |
| 4-0-1 | Home record | 3-2-0 |
| 2-1-1 | Away record | 2-2-2 |
| W2 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. SC Freiburg · VfL Wolfsburg
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.1 | Shots | 16.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.4 | Shots on target | 6.2 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.17 | Cards | 2.67 |
| 9.7 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 53 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.55 | xG | 1.77 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 9.9 | Shots | 18.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.6 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 2.7 | Corners | 6.5 |
| 1.29 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 12.3 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 47 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.39 | xG | 1.72 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| SC Freiburg | Metric | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 | Goals scored | 3.20 (better) |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.83 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.91 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.50 | Shots on target | 6.75 (better) |
| 16.50 | Total shots | 17.75 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 | Corners | 6.50 (better) |
| 55.0 | Possession % | 58.0 (better) |
| 489 | Passes | 499 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.50 (better) | Fouls | 16.50 |
| 0.50 (better) | Offsides | 0.75 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.75 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.00 |
| 1.00 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- SC Freiburg wins
- 2
- Draws
- 1
- VfL Wolfsburg wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 4.67
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 100%
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