SC Braga v GIL Vicente

8th1–27th

19:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
SC Braga		GIL Vicente
18	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	1
13	Fouls	9
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
678	Passes	445
60%	Possession %	40%
1.39	xG	1.54

Over 1.5: 69%
Over 2.5: 42%
Over 3.5: 21%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: SC Braga 48%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.43 – 0.92

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

SC Braga -0.75

1.72Bet365 · fair 1.54 · qualifies at 1.59+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back SC Braga -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.72 with Bet365 — SC Braga must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 81%; we judge it at 65%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.54. The offered 1.72 implies only 58%, so the price is 11.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: SC Braga 1.43, GIL Vicente 0.92.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	41.8%	2.39	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-6.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	58.2%	1.72	1.87 Betano	53.5%	+4.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	21.2%	4.72	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-5.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	78.8%	1.27	1.33 Betano	75.2%	+3.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.5%	2.15	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-3.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.5%	1.87	1.83 Betano	54.6%	-1.1
Match result	SC Braga	48.4%	2.07	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-9.7
Match result	Draw	28.1%	3.56	4.00 Dafabet	25.0%	+3.1
Match result	GIL Vicente	23.5%	4.25	6.40 Betano	15.6%	+7.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	68.8%	1.45	1.34 BetVictor	74.6%	-5.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	31.2%	3.20	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+2.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

SC Braga favoured against GIL Vicente

Our model makes SC Braga 48% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 28% and GIL Vicente at 24%. The goal projection is 1.43 for SC Braga against 0.92 for GIL Vicente — a substantial edge to SC Braga on expected output. A combined 2.35 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 42% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 10%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for SC Braga and GIL Vicente
SC Braga		GIL Vicente
11	Played	11
5-2-4	W-D-L	5-3-3
1.55	Pts / game	1.64
1.18	Goals for / game	0.91
1.00	Goals against / game	0.73
55%	Over 2.5	27%
45%	BTTS	36%
45%	Clean sheets	45%
18%	Failed to score	36%
3-0-2	Home record	2-2-2
2-2-2	Away record	3-1-1
W2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. SC Braga · GIL Vicente

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.8	Shots	12.6
3.2	Shots on target	2.8
5.8	Corners	3.6
2.50	Cards	2.40
15.8	Fouls	14.2
56	Possession %	48
1.37	xG	1.08
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
7.5	Shots	12.4
2.7	Shots on target	2.8
2.2	Corners	4.0
2.70	Cards	2.60
11.8	Fouls	15.2
44	Possession %	52
0.75	xG	0.99
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SC Braga	Metric	GIL Vicente
0.60	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
0.99	Expected goals (xG)	1.42 (better)
	Big chances
3.40	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
11.60	Total shots	17.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.20 (better)	Corners	3.50
57.2 (better)	Possession %	54.5
561 (better)	Passes	488
	Tackles
13.00	Fouls	13.00
1.80 (better)	Offsides	2.33
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

SC Braga wins: 0
Draws: 0
GIL Vicente wins: 3
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

SC Braga v GIL Vicente1–22026-10-19
GIL Vicente v SC Braga2–12026-02-14
SC Braga v GIL Vicente0–12025-09-14

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	11	11	0	0	+22	33	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+20	28	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	11	7	3	1	+13	24	Sporting CP won 3 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	11	6	3	2	+8	21	Santa Clara won 2 of the last 5
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	+5	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	11	6	2	3	+2	20	Academico Viseu won 4 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	11	5	3	3	+2	18	GIL Vicente won 3 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	11	5	2	4	+2	17	SC Braga won 2 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	11	4	2	5	-5	14	Moreirense won 2 of the last 5
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	+1	13	Famalicao won 3 of the last 5
11	Alverca	11	3	3	5	-1	12	Alverca won 2 of the last 5
12	Estrela	11	2	4	5	-5	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Nacional	11	3	1	7	-8	10	Nacional won 2 of the last 5
14	Vitória SC	11	2	3	6	-1	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
15	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
16	Casa Pia	11	2	2	7	-14	8	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
17	Rio Ave	11	2	1	8	-15	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5