Sassuolo v AC Milan

17th1–14th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sassuolo		AC Milan
10	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	6
3	Corners	5
13	Fouls	11
1	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
438	Passes	627
41%	Possession %	59%
1.27	xG	1.23

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: AC Milan 40%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.23 – 1.40

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sassuolo	32.3%	3.10	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+10.0
Match result	Draw	27.3%	3.66	3.90 BetVictor	25.6%	+1.7
Match result	AC Milan	40.4%	2.48	1.87 Dafabet	53.5%	-13.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.4%	1.34	1.25 Bet365	80.0%	-5.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.6%	3.91	4.80 Betfair	20.8%	+4.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.9%	2.05	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-10.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.1%	1.96	2.22 Betano	45.0%	+6.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.0%	3.70	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-6.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.0%	1.37	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+6.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.9%	1.85	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-3.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.1%	2.17	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+4.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

AC Milan favoured against Sassuolo

Our model makes Sassuolo 32% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 27% and AC Milan at 40%. The goal projection is 1.23 for Sassuolo against 1.40 for AC Milan — a slight edge to AC Milan on expected output. A combined 2.63 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Sassuolo and AC Milan
Sassuolo		AC Milan
11	Played	11
2-2-7	W-D-L	7-3-1
0.73	Pts / game	2.18
1.45	Goals for / game	2.09
2.64	Goals against / game	1.18
82%	Over 2.5	64%
82%	BTTS	73%
0%	Clean sheets	27%
18%	Failed to score	0%
2-1-2	Home record	4-0-1
0-1-5	Away record	3-3-0
L5	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sassuolo · AC Milan

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.4	Shots	10.3
3.5	Shots on target	4.6
3.4	Corners	2.6
1.42	Cards	1.86
10.0	Fouls	9.6
48	Possession %	59
1.03	xG	1.81
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.4	Shots	12.1
7.4	Shots on target	4.9
6.1	Corners	4.3
2.00	Cards	1.43
12.5	Fouls	13.3
52	Possession %	41
2.24	xG	1.23
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sassuolo	Metric	AC Milan
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.60	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.49 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.34
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	4.20
14.20 (better)	Total shots	12.40
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	4.00
47.8	Possession %	60.8 (better)
428	Passes	575 (better)
	Tackles
9.20 (better)	Fouls	11.20
2.20	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.80	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sassuolo wins: 1
Draws: 2
AC Milan wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Sassuolo v AC Milan1–12026-10-11
Sassuolo v AC Milan2–02026-05-03
AC Milan v Sassuolo2–22025-12-14

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5