Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5LLWLW9th0–3Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5WWWWD3rd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Rosenborg
14
Shots
20
5
Shots on target
6
7
Corners
8
15
Fouls
17
2
Yellow cards
3
—
Red cards
—
2
Offsides
2
446
Passes
423
51%
Possession %
49%
0.91
xG
1.85
30%
25%
45%
1 · Sarpsborg 08 FFXRosenborg · 2
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
38%
Both score
62%
Model pick
Rosenborg 45%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.72
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Sarpsborg 08 FF
30.4%
3.29
2.60 Betano
38.5%
-8.1
Match result
Draw
24.8%
4.04
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-1.6
Match result
Rosenborg
44.8%
2.23
2.70 William Hill
37.0%
+7.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
82.2%
1.22
1.17 Bet365
85.5%
-3.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
17.8%
5.63
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-0.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
60.0%
1.67
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
-5.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
40.0%
2.50
2.55 BetVictor
39.2%
+0.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
37.6%
2.66
2.30 Betano
43.5%
-5.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
62.4%
1.60
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+0.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
62.2%
1.61
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-4.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
37.8%
2.64
2.70 BetVictor
37.0%
+0.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Rosenborg favoured against Sarpsborg 08 FF
Our model makes Sarpsborg 08 FF 30% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 25% and Rosenborg at 45%. The goal projection is 1.39 for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.72 for Rosenborg — a clear edge to Rosenborg on expected output. A combined 3.10 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Metric
Rosenborg
1.20
Goals scored
3.00 (better)
1.20
Goals conceded
1.20
1.34
Expected goals (xG)
2.65 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
5.50
Shots on target
9.33 (better)
12.75
Total shots
19.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.00 (better)
Corners
5.67
46.8
Possession %
56.0 (better)
480
Passes
490 (better)
—
Tackles
—
9.25 (better)
Fouls
17.00
1.25
Offsides
0.50 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.75 (better)
Yellow cards
1.33
—
Red cards
0.50
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Sarpsborg 08 FF v 
Rosenborg