Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5LLWLW9th2–4Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5WWDLL14th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Kristiansund BK
23
Shots
10
7
Shots on target
6
9
Corners
2
13
Fouls
13
1
Yellow cards
2
1
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
559
Passes
239
71%
Possession %
29%
3.61
xG
2.25
55%
23%
21%
1 · Sarpsborg 08 FFXKristiansund BK · 2
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
57%
Model pick
Sarpsborg 08 FF 55%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.10
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Sarpsborg 08 FF
55.3%
1.81
1.53 Betano
65.4%
-10.1
Match result
Draw
23.4%
4.28
4.75 Betfair
21.1%
+2.3
Match result
Kristiansund BK
21.3%
4.69
5.80 Betano
17.2%
+4.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.5%
1.24
1.14 Betano
87.7%
-7.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.5%
5.13
6.50 Bet365
15.4%
+4.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
57.5%
1.74
1.44 Bet365
69.4%
-11.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
42.5%
2.35
2.88 Bet365
34.7%
+7.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
35.1%
2.85
2.12 Betano
47.2%
-12.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
64.9%
1.54
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
+9.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
57.2%
1.75
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-6.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
42.8%
2.34
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+3.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sarpsborg 08 FF favoured against Kristiansund BK
Our model makes Sarpsborg 08 FF 55% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 23% and Kristiansund BK at 21%. The goal projection is 1.89 for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.10 for Kristiansund BK — a substantial edge to Sarpsborg 08 FF on expected output. A combined 2.99 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 10%
2-0 9%
1-0 9%
3-1 6%
This season
Season records for Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Metric
Kristiansund BK
1.60 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.80 (better)
Goals conceded
2.80
1.52 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.77
—
Big chances *
—
6.00 (better)
Shots on target
4.00
15.00 (better)
Total shots
11.33
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.75 (better)
Corners
2.67
49.0 (better)
Possession %
41.7
460 (better)
Passes
358
—
Tackles
—
12.75
Fouls
11.00 (better)
2.00
Offsides
1.67 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.25 (better)
Yellow cards
1.33
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Sarpsborg 08 FF v 
Kristiansund BK