Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5LLWLW9th2–1Aalesund won 1 of the last 5LLLWL15th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Aalesund
34
Shots
7
6
Shots on target
2
20
Corners
4
11
Fouls
8
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
1
1
Offsides
3
553
Passes
228
72%
Possession %
28%
3.03
xG
0.32
49%
22%
29%
1 · Sarpsborg 08 FFXAalesund · 2
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
49%
Both score
69%
Model pick
Sarpsborg 08 FF 49%
Likely score
1-1 9%
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.57
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Sarpsborg 08 FF
48.7%
2.06
1.89 Dafabet
52.9%
-4.2
Match result
Draw
22.1%
4.52
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
-1.7
Match result
Aalesund
29.2%
3.43
3.90 William Hill
25.6%
+3.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
88.0%
1.14
1.12 Betano
89.3%
-1.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
12.0%
8.36
7.00 Bet365
14.3%
-2.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
70.0%
1.43
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
-1.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
30.0%
3.34
3.10 Bet365
32.3%
-2.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
48.9%
2.05
1.93 Betano
51.8%
-3.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
51.1%
1.96
1.88 Betano
53.2%
-2.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
69.4%
1.44
1.40 William Hill
71.4%
-2.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
30.6%
3.27
3.10 Betfair
32.3%
-1.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sarpsborg 08 FF favoured against Aalesund
Our model makes Sarpsborg 08 FF 49% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 22% and Aalesund at 29%. The goal projection is 2.05 for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.57 for Aalesund — a clear edge to Sarpsborg 08 FF on expected output. A combined 3.62 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Metric
Aalesund
2.00
Goals scored
2.60 (better)
1.60 (better)
Goals conceded
2.20
1.80 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.73
—
Big chances *
—
7.00 (better)
Shots on target
6.00
16.00
Total shots
17.75 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.75 (better)
Corners
6.50
46.3
Possession %
46.8 (better)
453 (better)
Passes
405
—
Tackles
—
11.25 (better)
Fouls
15.00
1.50
Offsides
0.67 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
3.00
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Sarpsborg 08 FF v 
Aalesund