Predicted Edge

Sanjoanense v Nacional

Sanjoanense won 3 of the last 31–0Nacional won 2 of the last 513th
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
45%
Both score
65%
Model pick
Sanjoanense 55%
Likely score
2-1 10%
Expected goals
2.12 – 1.32

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultSanjoanense55.1%1.817.00 BetVictor14.3%+40.8
Match resultDraw21.7%4.605.00 Bet36520.0%+1.7
Match resultNacional23.2%4.321.38 Bet36572.5%-49.3
Total goalsOver 1.586.2%1.161.17 Bet36585.5%+0.7
Total goalsUnder 1.513.8%7.255.00 Bet36520.0%-6.2
Total goalsOver 2.566.8%1.50———
Total goalsUnder 2.533.2%3.012.35 Bet36542.6%-9.3
Total goalsOver 3.545.0%2.222.38 Bet36542.0%+3.0
Total goalsUnder 3.555.0%1.821.53 Bet36565.4%-10.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes65.0%1.541.80 Bet36555.6%+9.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No35.0%2.862.00 William Hill50.0%-15.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sanjoanense favoured against Nacional

Our model makes Sanjoanense 55% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 22% and Nacional at 23%. The goal projection is 2.12 for Sanjoanense against 1.32 for Nacional — a substantial edge to Sanjoanense on expected output. A combined 3.44 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
2-1 10%
1-1 9%
2-0 7%
3-1 7%
1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Sanjoanense and Nacional
Sanjoanense Nacional
3Played11
3-0-0W-D-L3-1-7
3.00Pts / game0.91
2.67Goals for / game1.00
0.33Goals against / game1.73
67%Over 2.545%
33%BTTS36%
67%Clean sheets27%
0%Failed to score36%
2-0-0Home record3-0-3
1-0-0Away record0-1-4
W3StreakW1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sanjoanense · Nacional

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots11.0
—Shots on target4.0
—Corners5.0
—Cards1.75
—Fouls13.3
—Possession %41
—xG0.83
—sample4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots13.5
—Shots on target5.0
—Corners6.8
—Cards2.75
—Fouls8.5
—Possession %60
—xG1.21
—sample4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SanjoanenseMetricNacional
2.20 (better)Goals scored0.60
1.00 (better)Goals conceded2.60
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target2.60
Total shots9.20
Touches in opp. box
Corners3.20
Possession %48.8
Passes424
Tackles
Fouls9.00
Offsides0.80
Throw-ins
Yellow cards1.00
Red cards0.20

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Sanjoanense wins
1
Draws
0
Nacional wins
0
Goals / game
1.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%