Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-pulse

3rd4–015th

05:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sanfrecce Hiroshima		Shimizu S-pulse
16	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	2
7	Corners	4
16	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
515	Passes	356
59%	Possession %	41%
2.14	xG	0.59

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 58%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.85 – 0.96

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	57.7%	1.73	1.42 Bet365	70.4%	-12.7
Match result	Draw	23.6%	4.25	5.00 Dafabet	20.0%	+3.6
Match result	Shimizu S-pulse	18.7%	5.34	8.50 Bet365	11.8%	+7.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.7%	1.29	1.20 Betfair	83.3%	-5.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.3%	4.49	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+2.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.5%	1.87	1.60 Bet365	62.5%	-9.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.5%	2.15	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+4.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.2%	3.21	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-8.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.8%	1.45	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+3.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.7%	1.90	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.3%	2.11	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	-2.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima favoured against Shimizu S-pulse

Our model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima 58% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Shimizu S-pulse at 19%. The goal projection is 1.85 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima against 0.96 for Shimizu S-pulse — a substantial edge to Sanfrecce Hiroshima on expected output. A combined 2.82 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-0 11%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Shimizu S-pulse
Sanfrecce Hiroshima		Shimizu S-pulse
14	Played	14
9-3-2	W-D-L	4-2-8
2.14	Pts / game	1.00
2.29	Goals for / game	0.71
0.71	Goals against / game	1.64
64%	Over 2.5	43%
29%	BTTS	36%
64%	Clean sheets	14%
21%	Failed to score	50%
5-1-0	Home record	2-2-4
4-2-2	Away record	2-0-4
D1	Streak	L4

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Shimizu S-pulse

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.5	Shots	9.5
5.8	Shots on target	2.8
7.0	Corners	5.3
0.83	Cards	1.67
10.3	Fouls	12.0
64	Possession %	43
1.58	xG	0.64
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.5	Shots	12.3
2.5	Shots on target	5.5
2.2	Corners	5.3
1.67	Cards	1.67
12.0	Fouls	12.7
36	Possession %	57
0.87	xG	1.59
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Metric	Shimizu S-pulse
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
0.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.00
1.39 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.30
	Big chances
7.50 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
21.50 (better)	Total shots	10.50
	Touches in opp. box
10.00 (better)	Corners	4.50
75.5 (better)	Possession %	48.0
691 (better)	Passes	390
	Tackles
9.00	Fouls	8.50 (better)
2.00	Offsides	0.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.50	Yellow cards	1.50
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins: 1
Draws: 1
Shimizu S-pulse wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-pulse4–02026-10-24
Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-pulse1–12026-04-11
Shimizu S-pulse v Sanfrecce Hiroshima3–12026-03-22

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5