Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5DWWLW3rd3–0Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5WWDDL12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kyoto Sanga
24
Shots
7
7
Shots on target
2
9
Corners
4
5
Fouls
14
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
0
511
Passes
306
63%
Possession %
37%
2.33
xG
0.89
63%
21%
16%
1 · Sanfrecce HiroshimaXKyoto Sanga · 2
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
54%
Model pick
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 63%
Likely score
2-0 11%
Expected goals
2.06 – 0.94
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
62.8%
1.59
1.38 Betano
72.5%
-9.7
Match result
Draw
21.4%
4.68
5.60 Dafabet
17.9%
+3.5
Match result
Kyoto Sanga
15.8%
6.32
8.00 BetVictor
12.5%
+3.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.6%
1.24
1.14 Betano
87.7%
-7.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.4%
5.15
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
+2.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
57.7%
1.73
1.48 Bet365
67.6%
-9.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
42.3%
2.37
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
+7.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
35.3%
2.83
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-11.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
64.7%
1.55
1.72 Betano
58.1%
+6.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
53.7%
1.86
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
-3.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
46.3%
2.16
2.15 William Hill
46.5%
-0.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima favoured against Kyoto Sanga
Our model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima 63% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 21% and Kyoto Sanga at 16%. The goal projection is 2.06 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima against 0.94 for Kyoto Sanga — a commanding edge to Sanfrecce Hiroshima on expected output. A combined 3.00 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Sanfrecce Hiroshima is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 37% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-0 11%
1-1 10%
2-1 10%
1-0 10%
3-0 7%
This season
Season records for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Metric
Kyoto Sanga
3.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.00
3.51 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.84
—
Big chances *
—
9.67 (better)
Shots on target
2.67
24.67 (better)
Total shots
9.67
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
11.00 (better)
Corners
4.33
70.0 (better)
Possession %
50.7
663 (better)
Passes
442
—
Tackles
—
8.00 (better)
Fouls
10.67
2.67
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.67 (better)
Yellow cards
1.67
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Sanfrecce Hiroshima v 
Kyoto Sanga