Sandefjord v Lillestrom

13th0–24th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sandefjord		Lillestrom
21	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	6
4	Corners	3
12	Fouls	11
0	Yellow cards	2
—	Red cards	—
0	Offsides	4
568	Passes	407
58%	Possession %	42%
1.35	xG	0.51

Over 1.5: 70%
Over 2.5: 43%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: Sandefjord 44%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.37 – 1.02

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sandefjord	44.0%	2.27	2.70 Betano	37.0%	+7.0
Match result	Draw	28.7%	3.48	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+2.4
Match result	Lillestrom	27.2%	3.67	2.50 Dafabet	40.0%	-12.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.8%	1.43	1.18 Betano	84.7%	-14.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.2%	3.31	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+10.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	42.9%	2.33	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-20.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	57.1%	1.75	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+16.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	22.0%	4.54	2.38 Bet365	42.0%	-20.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	78.0%	1.28	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+14.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	48.6%	2.06	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-18.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	51.4%	1.95	2.55 BetVictor	39.2%	+12.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sandefjord favoured against Lillestrom

Our model makes Sandefjord 44% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 29% and Lillestrom at 27%. The goal projection is 1.37 for Sandefjord against 1.02 for Lillestrom — a clear edge to Sandefjord on expected output. A combined 2.39 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 9%

This season

Season records for Sandefjord and Lillestrom
Sandefjord		Lillestrom
26	Played	26
7-7-12	W-D-L	14-3-9
1.08	Pts / game	1.73
1.19	Goals for / game	1.50
1.50	Goals against / game	1.35
46%	Over 2.5	54%
50%	BTTS	46%
23%	Clean sheets	31%
35%	Failed to score	27%
3-6-4	Home record	7-1-5
4-1-8	Away record	7-2-4
D1	Streak	W4

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sandefjord · Lillestrom

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	15.5
5.7	Shots on target	5.3
4.2	Corners	6.2
1.40	Cards	1.33
12.8	Fouls	10.3
54	Possession %	47
1.79	xG	1.84
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.5	Shots	18.7
5.3	Shots on target	6.3
6.7	Corners	5.5
2.73	Cards	1.37
14.0	Fouls	12.0
47	Possession %	54
1.63	xG	1.80
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sandefjord	Metric	Lillestrom
1.75	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.21 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.02
	Big chances
4.67 (better)	Shots on target	4.50
12.33	Total shots	13.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.67	Corners	5.75 (better)
45.0	Possession %	50.0 (better)
461 (better)	Passes	437
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	11.50 (better)
1.67 (better)	Offsides	1.75
	Throw-ins
1.67	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sandefjord wins: 0
Draws: 0
Lillestrom wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Sandefjord v Lillestrom0–22026-10-18
Lillestrom v Sandefjord3–12026-05-16

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5