San Marino v Albania

0–3

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
San Marino		Albania
6	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	8
5	Corners	6
6	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
248	Passes	655
28%	Possession %	72%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: Albania 68%
Likely score: 0-2 12%
Expected goals: 0.80 – 2.16

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	San Marino	12.0%	8.32	61.00 BetVictor	1.6%	+10.4
Match result	Draw	19.9%	5.01	15.00 William Hill	6.7%	+13.3
Match result	Albania	68.0%	1.47	1.05 Betano	95.2%	-27.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.9%	1.25	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-8.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.1%	4.97	8.00 BetVictor	12.5%	+7.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.6%	1.77	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-14.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.4%	2.30	3.13 BetVictor	31.9%	+11.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.2%	2.92	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-13.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.8%	1.52	1.82 Betano	54.9%	+10.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	49.1%	2.04	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	50.9%	1.96	1.29 BetVictor	77.5%	-26.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Albania favoured against San Marino

Our model makes San Marino 12% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 20% and Albania at 68%. The goal projection is 0.80 for San Marino against 2.16 for Albania — a commanding edge to Albania on expected output. A combined 2.95 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Albania is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 32% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-2 12%; 0-1 11%; 1-2 10%; 1-1 10%; 0-3 9%

This season

Season records for San Marino and Albania
San Marino		Albania
4	Played	4
0-0-4	W-D-L	3-0-1
0.00	Pts / game	2.25
0.25	Goals for / game	2.00
4.00	Goals against / game	0.75
100%	Over 2.5	75%
25%	BTTS	50%
0%	Clean sheets	50%
75%	Failed to score	0%
0-0-2	Home record	2-0-0
0-0-2	Away record	1-0-1
L4	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. San Marino · Albania

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
6.3	Shots	18.5
2.0	Shots on target	5.8
2.5	Corners	6.8
3.08	Cards	2.33
15.3	Fouls	11.3
31	Possession %	59
0.61	xG	2.72
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.5	Shots	8.3
7.8	Shots on target	2.3
6.5	Corners	3.8
1.50	Cards	2.50
13.0	Fouls	15.8
69	Possession %	41
2.72	xG	0.61
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
San Marino	Metric	Albania
0.60	Goals scored	0.60
2.60	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
1.50	Shots on target	1.67 (better)
1.00	Total shots	13.67 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.50	Corners	4.67 (better)
37.5	Possession %	54.3 (better)
257	Passes	542 (better)
	Tackles
13.50	Fouls	9.33 (better)
2.00	Offsides	0.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	2.00
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

San Marino wins: 0
Draws: 0
Albania wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 50%

Albania v San Marino2–12026-10-06
San Marino v Albania0–32026-09-29