Predicted Edge

Salgueiros v Estoril

Salgueiros won 2 of the last 31–1aet, 1–4 pensEstoril won 0 of the last 518th
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
39%
Both score
63%
Model pick
Salgueiros 46%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.41

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Total goalsUnder 2.538.4%2.601.85 Bet36554.1%-15.6
Total goalsOver 3.539.3%2.543.40 Bet36529.4%+9.9
Total goalsUnder 3.560.7%1.651.30 Bet36576.9%-16.2
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes63.3%1.582.38 Bet36542.0%+21.3
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No36.7%2.731.55 William Hill64.5%-27.8
Match resultSalgueiros45.5%2.20———
Match resultDraw24.4%4.114.50 Bet36522.2%+2.1
Match resultEstoril30.1%3.321.36 William Hill73.5%-43.4
Total goalsOver 1.583.2%1.201.28 Bet36578.1%+5.1
Total goalsUnder 1.516.8%5.973.50 Bet36528.6%-11.8
Total goalsOver 2.561.6%1.621.95 Bet36551.3%+10.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Salgueiros favoured against Estoril

Our model makes Salgueiros 46% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 24% and Estoril at 30%. The goal projection is 1.77 for Salgueiros against 1.41 for Estoril — a clear edge to Salgueiros on expected output. A combined 3.18 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-2 7%
1-0 7%
2-0 7%

This season

Season records for Salgueiros and Estoril
Salgueiros Estoril
3Played10
2-1-0W-D-L0-2-8
2.33Pts / game0.20
1.33Goals for / game0.50
0.67Goals against / game1.90
33%Over 2.550%
67%BTTS50%
33%Clean sheets10%
0%Failed to score50%
2-1-0Home record0-2-3
0-0-0Away record0-0-5
D1StreakL5

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Salgueiros · Estoril

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots15.5
—Shots on target5.5
—Corners4.5
—Cards1.75
—Fouls10.0
—Possession %48
—xG1.27
—sample4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots15.8
—Shots on target6.0
—Corners4.5
—Cards1.75
—Fouls15.3
—Possession %52
—xG1.88
—sample4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SalgueirosMetricEstoril
1.20 (better)Goals scored0.60
0.60 (better)Goals conceded1.40
Expected goals (xG)0.87
Big chances
Shots on target5.20
Total shots12.60
Touches in opp. box
Corners4.40
Possession %45.2
Passes410
Tackles
Fouls10.40
Offsides0.20
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.60
Red cards0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Salgueiros wins
0
Draws
1
Estoril wins
0
Goals / game
2.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
100%