Salford City v 
Fleetwood Town
Match statistics
| Salford City | Fleetwood Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 331 | Passes | 293 |
| 54% | Possession % | 46% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 70%
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- Over 3.5
- 22%
- Both score
- 49%
- Model pick
- Salford City 43%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.36 – 1.04
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Under 1.5
Why this price?
Back under 1.5 goals at 4.10 with BetVictor — 1 goal or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 30%, which is a fair price of 3.34. The offered 4.10 implies only 24%, so the price is 22.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.85 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Salford City 1.36, Fleetwood Town 1.04.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Salford City | 43.3% | 2.31 | 1.70 Betfair | 58.8% | -15.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.7% | 3.48 | 4.20 Betfair | 23.8% | +4.9 |
| Match result | Fleetwood Town | 28.0% | 3.57 | 5.25 Bet365 | 19.0% | +8.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | 1.22 Betano | 82.0% | -12.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 30.0% | 3.33 | 4.75 BetVictor | 21.1% | +8.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 43.1% | 2.32 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -16.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | +11.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 22.2% | 4.50 | 2.75 Betano | 36.4% | -14.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 77.8% | 1.29 | 1.51 BetVictor | 66.2% | +11.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 48.9% | 2.04 | 1.73 Bet365 | 57.8% | -8.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 51.1% | 1.96 | 2.25 BetVictor | 44.4% | +6.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Salford City favoured against Fleetwood Town
Our model makes Salford City 43% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 29% and Fleetwood Town at 28%. The goal projection is 1.36 for Salford City against 1.04 for Fleetwood Town — a clear edge to Salford City on expected output. A combined 2.40 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 1-0 12%
- 0-0 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-1 9%
This season
| Salford City | Fleetwood Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 10-1-3 | W-D-L | 4-5-5 |
| 2.21 | Pts / game | 1.21 |
| 1.79 | Goals for / game | 1.29 |
| 1.07 | Goals against / game | 1.29 |
| 57% | Over 2.5 | 43% |
| 57% | BTTS | 64% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 14% |
| 6-0-1 | Home record | 3-3-1 |
| 4-1-2 | Away record | 1-2-4 |
| W8 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Salford City · Fleetwood Town
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.1 | Shots | 16.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 4.9 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.86 | Cards | 2.14 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 52 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.35 | xG | 1.89 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 11.6 | Shots | 9.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 3.0 |
| 5.9 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 1.86 | Cards | 1.88 |
| 13.3 | Fouls | 12.9 |
| 48 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.05 | xG | 1.02 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Salford City | Metric | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 1.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.63 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.40 (better) | Shots on target | 3.80 |
| 14.80 (better) | Total shots | 14.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.40 (better) | Corners | 4.20 |
| 55.6 (better) | Possession % | 48.0 |
| 425 (better) | Passes | 360 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.20 (better) | Fouls | 14.80 |
| 1.80 | Offsides | 1.40 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.40 |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Salford City wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Fleetwood Town wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 33%
- Salford City v Fleetwood Town1–02026-10-03
- Salford City v Fleetwood Town0–02025-12-29
- Fleetwood Town v Salford City1–12025-12-09
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 31 | Salford City won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 26 | Barnet won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | +9 | 22 | Walsall won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 22 | Crewe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 | Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +6 | 20 | Grimsby won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 | York won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 | Gillingham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 | Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 | Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 | Tranmere won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 | Exeter City won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 | Newport County won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 | Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17 | Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 | Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 | Oldham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 | Port Vale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 | Rochdale won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 | Northampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 | Rotherham won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 | Colchester won 0 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 9 | Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5 |