Salford City won 5 of the last 5WWWWW1st2–1Exeter City won 3 of the last 5LWWDW12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Salford City
Exeter City
9
Shots
16
3
Shots on target
3
3
Corners
5
13
Fouls
10
3
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
2
554
Passes
270
49%
Possession %
51%
1.20
xG
0.86
48%
30%
22%
1 · Salford CityXExeter City · 2
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
16%
Both score
41%
Model pick
Salford City 48%
Likely score
1-0 15%
Expected goals
1.31 – 0.79
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Exeter City
22.0%
4.55
7.50 BetVictor
13.3%
+8.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
62.6%
1.60
1.23 Betano
81.3%
-18.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
37.4%
2.68
4.33 Betfair
23.1%
+14.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
35.0%
2.86
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
-20.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
65.0%
1.54
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
+18.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
16.1%
6.21
3.00 Bet365
33.3%
-17.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
83.9%
1.19
1.42 Betano
70.4%
+13.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
40.5%
2.47
1.93 Betano
51.8%
-11.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
59.5%
1.68
2.05 Betfair
48.8%
+10.7
Match result
Salford City
48.1%
2.08
1.67 William Hill
59.9%
-11.7
Match result
Draw
29.9%
3.35
4.60 Betfair
21.7%
+8.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Salford City favoured against Exeter City
Our model makes Salford City 48% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 30% and Exeter City at 22%. The goal projection is 1.31 for Salford City against 0.79 for Exeter City — a substantial edge to Salford City on expected output. A combined 2.10 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 35% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Salford City
Metric
Exeter City
1.60 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
0.60
Goals conceded
0.40 (better)
1.65 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.34
—
Big chances *
—
4.60 (better)
Shots on target
3.40
14.00 (better)
Total shots
10.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.20 (better)
Corners
3.60
53.2 (better)
Possession %
46.0
429 (better)
Passes
357
—
Tackles
—
9.80 (better)
Fouls
10.40
1.60 (better)
Offsides
1.80
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.80 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
Salford City v 
Exeter City