Salford City v 
Crawley Town
Match statistics
| Salford City | Crawley Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 6 |
| 491 | Passes | 375 |
| 57% | Possession % | 43% |
| 1.68 | xG | 0.56 |
- Over 1.5
- 71%
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- Over 3.5
- 23%
- Both score
- 45%
- Model pick
- Salford City 56%
- Likely score
- 1-0 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.63 – 0.81
Advised bets
VoidMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Salford City -1
Why this price?
Back Salford City -1 on the Asian handicap at 1.65 with Betano — Salford City must win by more than 1 goal.
Our model puts the chance at 42% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 85%; we judge it at 68%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.48. The offered 1.65 implies only 61%, so the price is 11.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Salford City 1.63, Crawley Town 0.81.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Salford City | 56.4% | 1.77 | 1.45 Dafabet | 69.0% | -12.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.7% | 3.89 | 5.40 Dafabet | 18.5% | +7.2 |
| Match result | Crawley Town | 17.9% | 5.60 | 8.00 BetVictor | 12.5% | +5.4 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | 1.15 Betano | 87.0% | -16.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 29.4% | 3.41 | 6.50 Betfair | 15.4% | +14.0 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 44.1% | 2.27 | 1.48 Bet365 | 67.6% | -23.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | +21.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 23.0% | 4.34 | 2.25 Bet365 | 44.4% | -21.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.73 Betfair | 57.8% | +19.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 45.2% | 2.21 | 1.73 Bet365 | 57.8% | -12.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 54.8% | 1.82 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | +9.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Salford City favoured against Crawley Town
Our model makes Salford City 56% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 26% and Crawley Town at 18%. The goal projection is 1.63 for Salford City against 0.81 for Crawley Town — a substantial edge to Salford City on expected output. A combined 2.44 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-0 14%
- 1-1 12%
- 2-0 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-0 9%
This season
| Salford City | Crawley Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 12 |
| 10-1-3 | W-D-L | 2-3-7 |
| 2.21 | Pts / game | 0.75 |
| 1.79 | Goals for / game | 1.08 |
| 1.07 | Goals against / game | 1.75 |
| 57% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 57% | BTTS | 67% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 6-0-1 | Home record | 0-2-4 |
| 4-1-2 | Away record | 2-1-3 |
| W8 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Salford City · Crawley Town
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.1 | Shots | 12.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 1.86 | Cards | 1.80 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 12.2 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.35 | xG | 1.39 |
| 7 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 11.6 | Shots | 15.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 5.9 | Corners | 6.2 |
| 1.86 | Cards | 2.60 |
| 13.3 | Fouls | 10.4 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.05 | xG | 1.45 |
| 7 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Salford City | Metric | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 1.67 (better) |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.00 |
| 2.11 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.05 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.20 (better) | Shots on target | 5.00 |
| 17.40 (better) | Total shots | 16.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.40 (better) | Corners | 5.67 |
| 55.6 | Possession % | 55.7 (better) |
| 441 (better) | Passes | 404 |
| Tackles | ||
| 7.80 (better) | Fouls | 16.33 |
| 2.80 | Offsides | 2.33 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.00 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Salford City wins
- 2
- Draws
- 1
- Crawley Town wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.33
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- Salford City v Crawley Town2–12026-10-17
- Crawley Town v Salford City0–02026-05-02
- Salford City v Crawley Town4–32025-11-29
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 31 | Salford City won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 26 | Barnet won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | +9 | 22 | Walsall won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 22 | Crewe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 | Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +6 | 20 | Grimsby won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 | York won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 | Gillingham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 | Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 | Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 | Tranmere won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 | Exeter City won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 | Newport County won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 | Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17 | Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 | Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 | Oldham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 | Port Vale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 | Rochdale won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 | Northampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 | Rotherham won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 | Colchester won 0 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 9 | Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5 |