Saint Etienne v Nantes

1st1–014th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Saint Etienne		Nantes
11	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	2
7	Corners	6
11	Fouls	17
3	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
5	Offsides	2
642	Passes	341
65%	Possession %	35%
0.83	xG	0.30

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Saint Etienne 57%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.83 – 0.98

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Saint Etienne	56.6%	1.77	1.83 Betano	54.6%	+2.0
Match result	Draw	23.8%	4.20	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-1.8
Match result	Nantes	19.5%	5.12	4.75 Betano	21.1%	-1.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.7%	1.29	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.3%	4.48	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-2.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.4%	1.87	1.82 Betano	54.9%	-1.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.6%	2.15	2.10 Betano	47.6%	-1.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.1%	3.21	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-2.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.9%	1.45	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-1.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.1%	1.88	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-4.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.9%	2.13	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-0.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Saint Etienne favoured against Nantes

Our model makes Saint Etienne 57% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 24% and Nantes at 20%. The goal projection is 1.83 for Saint Etienne against 0.98 for Nantes — a substantial edge to Saint Etienne on expected output. A combined 2.81 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-0 10%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Saint Etienne and Nantes
Saint Etienne		Nantes
12	Played	12
9-1-2	W-D-L	3-3-6
2.33	Pts / game	1.00
2.08	Goals for / game	1.17
0.92	Goals against / game	1.50
67%	Over 2.5	42%
42%	BTTS	50%
50%	Clean sheets	25%
8%	Failed to score	33%
6-0-0	Home record	1-2-3
3-1-2	Away record	2-1-3
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Saint Etienne · Nantes

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.0	Shots	12.2
3.8	Shots on target	4.0
6.2	Corners	5.6
2.40	Cards	3.05
14.8	Fouls	20.8
58	Possession %	45
1.56	xG	1.16
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
6.8	Shots	8.8
2.4	Shots on target	3.0
4.2	Corners	5.2
2.20	Cards	3.05
13.4	Fouls	13.8
42	Possession %	55
0.64	xG	0.52
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Saint Etienne	Metric	Nantes
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.40
11.75	Total shots	15.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.75	Corners	5.60 (better)
52.8	Possession %	54.8 (better)
488 (better)	Passes	449
	Tackles
19.50	Fouls	17.00 (better)
4.33	Offsides	1.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Saint Etienne wins: 1
Draws: 0
Nantes wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Saint Etienne v Nantes1–02026-10-24

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5