Rudes v HNK Rijeka

8th1–26th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Rudes		HNK Rijeka
6	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	4
3	Corners	4
8	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
311	Passes	736
30%	Possession %	70%
0.71	xG	1.10

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 62%
Over 3.5: 40%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: HNK Rijeka 56%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.20 – 2.02

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.0%	1.64	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+8.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.0%	2.56	1.91 William Hill	52.4%	-13.3
Match result	Rudes	21.7%	4.60	7.60 Dafabet	13.2%	+8.6
Match result	Draw	22.4%	4.47	4.90 Dafabet	20.4%	+2.0
Match result	HNK Rijeka	55.9%	1.79	1.41 Dafabet	70.9%	-15.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.5%	1.20	1.20 Betfair	83.3%	+0.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.5%	6.07	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	-3.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	62.3%	1.61	1.62 Betano	61.7%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	37.7%	2.65	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	-5.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	40.0%	2.50	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+0.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	60.0%	1.67	1.53 Betano	65.4%	-5.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

HNK Rijeka favoured against Rudes

Our model makes Rudes 22% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 22% and HNK Rijeka at 56%. The goal projection is 1.20 for Rudes against 2.02 for HNK Rijeka — a substantial edge to HNK Rijeka on expected output. A combined 3.21 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-2 8%; 0-1 8%; 1-3 7%

This season

Season records for Rudes and HNK Rijeka
Rudes		HNK Rijeka
13	Played	12
5-1-7	W-D-L	5-3-4
1.23	Pts / game	1.50
1.23	Goals for / game	1.58
2.08	Goals against / game	1.50
69%	Over 2.5	67%
54%	BTTS	75%
23%	Clean sheets	17%
23%	Failed to score	17%
2-1-3	Home record	4-1-0
3-0-4	Away record	1-2-4
W3	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rudes · HNK Rijeka

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.8	Shots	11.3
3.2	Shots on target	3.8
3.4	Corners	5.2
3.20	Cards	2.40
15.4	Fouls	12.5
31	Possession %	56
1.29	xG	1.22
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.4	Shots	10.7
3.4	Shots on target	5.2
6.2	Corners	3.0
0.80	Cards	2.23
10.6	Fouls	10.7
69	Possession %	44
1.28	xG	1.45
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rudes	Metric	HNK Rijeka
1.80	Goals scored	2.80 (better)
2.40	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
0.77	Expected goals (xG)	2.04 (better)
	Big chances
2.75	Shots on target	7.67 (better)
9.25	Total shots	18.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	6.33 (better)
37.5	Possession %	52.0 (better)
294	Passes	420 (better)
	Tackles
15.50	Fouls	14.33 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.50	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Rudes wins: 0
Draws: 0
HNK Rijeka wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Rudes v HNK Rijeka1–22026-10-16
HNK Rijeka v Rudes2–12026-08-02

Croatian HNL table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	HNK Hajduk Split	13	9	2	2	+16	29	HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of the last 5
2	Dinamo Zagreb	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Dinamo Zagreb won 3 of the last 5
3	NK Osijek	13	6	2	5	+4	20	NK Osijek won 1 of the last 5
4	Istra 1961	13	5	4	4	+5	19	Istra 1961 won 3 of the last 5
5	NK Varazdin	13	5	4	4	+3	19	NK Varazdin won 1 of the last 5
6	HNK Rijeka	12	5	3	4	+1	18	HNK Rijeka won 1 of the last 5
7	NK Slaven Belupo	12	5	1	6	-7	16	NK Slaven Belupo won 3 of the last 5
8	Rudes	13	5	1	7	-11	16	Rudes won 4 of the last 5
9	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	13	3	2	8	-7	11	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 1 of the last 5
10	HNK Gorica	13	1	4	8	-15	7	HNK Gorica won 0 of the last 5