Rudes v Dinamo Zagreb

8th1–02nd

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Rudes		Dinamo Zagreb
13	Shots	26
4	Shots on target	3
7	Corners	9
20	Fouls	6
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	1
1	Offsides	1
181	Passes	659
22%	Possession %	78%
1.09	xG	2.60

Over 1.5: 94%
Over 2.5: 83%
Over 3.5: 67%
Both score: 72%

Model pick: Dinamo Zagreb 73%
Likely score: 1-3 8%
Expected goals: 1.37 – 3.19

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Rudes	12.8%	7.82	10.00 BetVictor	10.0%	+2.8
Match result	Draw	14.3%	7.00	6.40 Dafabet	15.6%	-1.3
Match result	Dinamo Zagreb	72.9%	1.37	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-5.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	94.4%	1.06	1.13 Betano	88.5%	+5.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	5.6%	17.86	7.50 BetVictor	13.3%	-7.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	83.3%	1.20	1.42 Betano	70.4%	+12.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	16.7%	5.98	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-12.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	66.7%	1.50	2.00 Betano	50.0%	+16.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	33.3%	3.00	1.95 Betano	51.3%	-18.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	71.7%	1.39	1.83 Bet365	54.6%	+17.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	28.3%	3.54	2.15 BetVictor	46.5%	-18.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Dinamo Zagreb favoured against Rudes

Our model makes Rudes 13% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 14% and Dinamo Zagreb at 73%. The goal projection is 1.37 for Rudes against 3.19 for Dinamo Zagreb — a commanding edge to Dinamo Zagreb on expected output. A combined 4.56 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 83% and both teams to score at 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-3 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Dinamo Zagreb is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 27% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-3 8%; 1-2 7%; 1-4 6%; 0-3 6%; 0-2 5%

This season

Season records for Rudes and Dinamo Zagreb
Rudes		Dinamo Zagreb
13	Played	11
5-1-7	W-D-L	7-1-3
1.23	Pts / game	2.00
1.23	Goals for / game	2.36
2.08	Goals against / game	1.36
69%	Over 2.5	82%
54%	BTTS	73%
23%	Clean sheets	18%
23%	Failed to score	9%
2-1-3	Home record	5-0-0
3-0-4	Away record	2-1-3
W3	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rudes · Dinamo Zagreb

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.8	Shots	20.2
3.2	Shots on target	5.7
3.4	Corners	5.8
3.20	Cards	1.33
15.4	Fouls	12.5
31	Possession %	59
1.29	xG	2.23
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.4	Shots	10.0
3.4	Shots on target	3.5
6.2	Corners	3.7
0.80	Cards	2.67
10.6	Fouls	12.5
69	Possession %	41
1.28	xG	1.19
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rudes	Metric	Dinamo Zagreb
2.00	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
0.91	Expected goals (xG)	2.49 (better)
	Big chances
3.50	Shots on target	6.25 (better)
10.00	Total shots	16.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.25	Corners	4.25
36.3	Possession %	52.8 (better)
302	Passes	466 (better)
	Tackles
14.50 (better)	Fouls	14.75
1.75	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.75	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Rudes wins: 1
Draws: 0
Dinamo Zagreb wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 0%

Rudes v Dinamo Zagreb1–02026-10-31
Dinamo Zagreb v Rudes4–02026-08-14

Croatian HNL table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	HNK Hajduk Split	13	9	2	2	+16	29	HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of the last 5
2	Dinamo Zagreb	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Dinamo Zagreb won 3 of the last 5
3	NK Osijek	13	6	2	5	+4	20	NK Osijek won 1 of the last 5
4	Istra 1961	13	5	4	4	+5	19	Istra 1961 won 3 of the last 5
5	NK Varazdin	13	5	4	4	+3	19	NK Varazdin won 1 of the last 5
6	HNK Rijeka	12	5	3	4	+1	18	HNK Rijeka won 1 of the last 5
7	NK Slaven Belupo	12	5	1	6	-7	16	NK Slaven Belupo won 3 of the last 5
8	Rudes	13	5	1	7	-11	16	Rudes won 4 of the last 5
9	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	13	3	2	8	-7	11	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 1 of the last 5
10	HNK Gorica	13	1	4	8	-15	7	HNK Gorica won 0 of the last 5