Predicted Edge

RSD Alcalá v Las Palmas

RSD Alcalá won 0 of the last 11–11–3 aetLas Palmas won 3 of the last 510th
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
41%
Both score
65%
Model pick
Las Palmas 41%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.69

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultRSD Alcalá35.2%2.846.00 Betfair16.7%+18.5
Match resultDraw24.2%4.145.60 Dafabet17.9%+6.3
Match resultLas Palmas40.7%2.461.61 Dafabet62.1%-21.4
Total goalsOver 1.584.1%1.191.25 BetVictor80.0%+4.1
Total goalsUnder 1.515.9%6.294.60 BetVictor21.7%-5.9
Total goalsOver 2.563.2%1.581.73 Bet36557.8%+5.4
Total goalsUnder 2.536.8%2.722.10 Bet36547.6%-10.8
Total goalsOver 3.541.0%2.442.80 Betfair35.7%+5.3
Total goalsUnder 3.559.0%1.701.42 Betano70.4%-11.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes65.0%1.541.91 Bet36552.4%+12.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No35.0%2.862.00 William Hill50.0%-15.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

RSD Alcalá v Las Palmas: too close to call

Our model makes RSD Alcalá 35% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 24% and Las Palmas at 41%. The goal projection is 1.56 for RSD Alcalá against 1.69 for Las Palmas — a slight edge to Las Palmas on expected output. A combined 3.26 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
1-2 9%
2-1 8%
2-2 7%
0-1 6%

This season

Season records for RSD Alcalá and Las Palmas
RSD Alcalá Las Palmas
1Played13
0-1-0W-D-L6-2-5
1.00Pts / game1.54
1.00Goals for / game1.46
1.00Goals against / game1.62
0%Over 2.562%
100%BTTS54%
0%Clean sheets38%
0%Failed to score15%
0-1-0Home record3-2-2
0-0-0Away record3-0-3
D1StreakW3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. RSD Alcalá · Las Palmas

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots10.0
—Shots on target3.6
—Corners4.3
—Cards3.64
—Fouls12.0
—Possession %51
—xG0.86
—sample8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots13.8
—Shots on target5.0
—Corners5.5
—Cards2.63
—Fouls16.5
—Possession %49
—xG1.22
—sample8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
RSD AlcaláMetricLas Palmas
1.20Goals scored1.20
1.60 (better)Goals conceded2.60
Expected goals (xG)0.45
Big chances
Shots on target3.00
Total shots9.00
Touches in opp. box
Corners3.60
Possession %49.0
Passes433
Tackles
Fouls13.00
Offsides2.00
Throw-ins
Yellow cards4.60
Red cards1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
RSD Alcalá wins
0
Draws
1
Las Palmas wins
0
Goals / game
2.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
100%