No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Rot-Weiß Essen
16.8%
5.97
13.00 Dafabet
7.7%
+9.1
Match result
Draw
19.7%
5.08
8.60 Dafabet
11.6%
+8.1
Match result
RB Leipzig
63.6%
1.57
1.23 Dafabet
81.3%
-17.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.2%
1.16
1.10 Bet365
90.9%
-4.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
13.8%
7.24
8.50 Betfair
11.8%
+2.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
66.8%
1.50
1.32 Betano
75.8%
-9.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
33.2%
3.01
3.60 Betfair
27.8%
+5.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
45.0%
2.22
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
-8.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
55.0%
1.82
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
+7.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
61.3%
1.63
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
+8.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
38.7%
2.58
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
-11.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
RB Leipzig favoured against Rot-Weiß Essen
Our model makes Rot-Weiß Essen 17% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 20% and RB Leipzig at 64%. The goal projection is 1.12 for Rot-Weiß Essen against 2.32 for RB Leipzig — a commanding edge to RB Leipzig on expected output. A combined 3.44 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. RB Leipzig is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rot-Weiß Essen
Metric
RB Leipzig
1.60
Goals scored
2.60 (better)
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
1.94
Expected goals (xG)
2.07 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
5.50
Shots on target
6.00 (better)
20.00 (better)
Total shots
16.40
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00
Corners
5.00
58.8 (better)
Possession %
48.2
483 (better)
Passes
459
—
Tackles
—
9.50 (better)
Fouls
10.80
2.25
Offsides
0.80 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.50
Yellow cards
1.20 (better)
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Rot-Weiß Essen v 
RB Leipzig