Rodez v 
Montpellier
Match statistics
| Rodez | Montpellier | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 272 | Passes | 452 |
| 40% | Possession % | 60% |
| 1.70 | xG | 1.65 |
- Over 1.5
- 72%
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- Over 3.5
- 24%
- Both score
- 51%
- Model pick
- Montpellier 44%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.08 – 1.41
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Both teams to score — No
Why this price?
Back both teams to score — no at 2.55 with Betano — at least one side fails to score.
Our model puts the chance at 49% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 43%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.31. The offered 2.55 implies only 39%, so the price is 10.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.64 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Rodez 1.08, Montpellier 1.41.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Montpellier
Why this price?
Back Montpellier to win at 2.60 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 37%; we judge it at 40%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.50. The offered 2.60 implies only 38%, so the price is 3.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.59 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Rodez 1.08, Montpellier 1.41.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Rodez | 28.1% | 3.55 | 3.20 Betfair | 31.3% | -3.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.2% | 3.55 | 3.70 Dafabet | 27.0% | +1.1 |
| Match result | Montpellier | 43.7% | 2.29 | 2.52 Betano | 39.7% | +4.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 71.7% | 1.39 | 1.19 Betano | 84.0% | -12.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 28.3% | 3.54 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | +8.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 45.2% | 2.21 | 1.65 Bet365 | 60.6% | -15.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.83 | 2.42 Betano | 41.3% | +13.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 23.9% | 4.18 | 3.00 Betano | 33.3% | -9.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | +13.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 50.6% | 1.98 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | -13.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 49.4% | 2.02 | 2.55 Betano | 39.2% | +10.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Montpellier favoured against Rodez
Our model makes Rodez 28% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 28% and Montpellier at 44%. The goal projection is 1.08 for Rodez against 1.41 for Montpellier — a clear edge to Montpellier on expected output. A combined 2.49 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 0-1 11%
- 0-0 9%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-2 8%
This season
| Rodez | Montpellier | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 4-1-7 | W-D-L | 7-3-2 |
| 1.08 | Pts / game | 2.00 |
| 1.42 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.92 | Goals against / game | 0.75 |
| 58% | Over 2.5 | 42% |
| 50% | BTTS | 42% |
| 8% | Clean sheets | 58% |
| 42% | Failed to score | 8% |
| 2-1-3 | Home record | 3-2-1 |
| 2-0-4 | Away record | 4-1-1 |
| L1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rodez · Montpellier
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.8 | Shots | 14.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 5.6 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 15.8 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 34 | Possession % | 61 |
| 1.36 | xG | 1.46 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 13.6 | Shots | 14.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 4.6 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 1.60 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 13.2 | Fouls | 17.8 |
| 66 | Possession % | 39 |
| 1.35 | xG | 1.59 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Rodez | Metric | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| 0.77 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.48 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.75 (better) | Shots on target | 4.60 |
| 14.75 (better) | Total shots | 11.80 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.75 (better) | Corners | 5.60 |
| 44.5 | Possession % | 63.0 (better) |
| 366 | Passes | 587 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.00 (better) | Fouls | 15.20 |
| 1.50 | Offsides | 0.50 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.25 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Rodez wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Montpellier wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 0%
- Rodez v Montpellier0–32026-10-19
- Rodez v Montpellier1–02026-02-20
- Montpellier v Rodez2–02025-10-31
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +14 | 28 | Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Nancy | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | +8 | 25 | Nancy won 5 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +9 | 24 | Montpellier won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Reims | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | +9 | 21 | Reims won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | PAU | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 20 | PAU won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Dijon | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 18 | Dijon won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Metz | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 17 | Metz won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | RED Star FC 93 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 | RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Annecy | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 16 | Annecy won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 15 | Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 14 | Guingamp won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Boulogne | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 13 | Boulogne won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Rodez | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 | Rodez won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Nantes | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 | Nantes won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Clermont Foot | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | -4 | 11 | Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Sochaux | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 | Sochaux won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Grenoble | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 | Grenoble won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Laval | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 | Laval won 1 of the last 5 |