Rodez v Dunkerque

13th1–010th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Rodez		Dunkerque
13	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	2
5	Corners	4
18	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
233	Passes	644
28%	Possession %	72%
2.08	xG	0.62

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Dunkerque 41%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.60 – 1.76

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Dunkerque

3.30Betano · fair 2.96 · qualifies at 3.05+ · 1.26u

Why this price?

Back Dunkerque to win at 3.30 with Betano.

Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 29%; we judge it at 34%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.96. The offered 3.30 implies only 30%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.26 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Rodez 1.60, Dunkerque 1.76.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Rodez	34.8%	2.88	2.07 Betano	48.3%	-13.5
Match result	Draw	23.7%	4.21	3.85 Dafabet	26.0%	-2.2
Match result	Dunkerque	41.5%	2.41	3.45 Dafabet	29.0%	+12.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.2%	1.17	1.20 Betano	83.3%	+1.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.8%	6.78	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	-3.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	65.1%	1.54	1.62 Betano	61.7%	+3.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	34.9%	2.86	2.47 Betano	40.5%	-5.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	43.1%	2.32	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+3.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	56.9%	1.76	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-7.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	66.4%	1.50	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+1.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	33.6%	2.98	2.55 BetVictor	39.2%	-5.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Dunkerque favoured against Rodez

Our model makes Rodez 35% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 24% and Dunkerque at 41%. The goal projection is 1.60 for Rodez against 1.76 for Dunkerque — a slight edge to Dunkerque on expected output. A combined 3.35 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Rodez and Dunkerque
Rodez		Dunkerque
12	Played	12
4-1-7	W-D-L	4-3-5
1.08	Pts / game	1.25
1.42	Goals for / game	1.42
1.92	Goals against / game	1.42
58%	Over 2.5	42%
50%	BTTS	50%
8%	Clean sheets	8%
42%	Failed to score	42%
2-1-3	Home record	3-2-2
2-0-4	Away record	1-1-3
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rodez · Dunkerque

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.8	Shots	12.6
4.0	Shots on target	3.4
5.6	Corners	4.8
2.00	Cards	1.65
15.8	Fouls	12.4
34	Possession %	56
1.36	xG	1.21
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.6	Shots	15.2
4.8	Shots on target	5.8
4.6	Corners	5.6
1.60	Cards	2.40
13.2	Fouls	18.0
66	Possession %	44
1.35	xG	1.46
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rodez	Metric	Dunkerque
1.00	Goals scored	1.00
2.00	Goals conceded	2.00
1.70	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
4.75 (better)	Shots on target	2.00
14.75 (better)	Total shots	7.75
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	4.25
44.0	Possession %	44.8 (better)
356	Passes	403 (better)
	Tackles
14.50	Fouls	13.25 (better)
1.25 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	2.75
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Rodez wins: 1
Draws: 2
Dunkerque wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 67%

Rodez v Dunkerque1–02026-10-30
Dunkerque v Rodez1–12026-04-03
Rodez v Dunkerque1–12025-11-21

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5