Roda won 1 of the last 1W1–0De Graafschap won 0 of the last 1L
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Roda
De Graafschap
12
Shots
18
3
Shots on target
7
8
Corners
4
13
Fouls
20
0
Yellow cards
5
—
Red cards
—
1
Offsides
1
454
Passes
473
50%
Possession %
50%
—
xG
—
41%
22%
37%
1 · RodaXDe Graafschap · 2
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
75%
Over 3.5
55%
Both score
74%
Model pick
Roda 41%
Likely score
1-1 8%
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.90
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Roda
41.3%
2.42
2.24 Dafabet
44.6%
-3.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
54.9%
1.82
2.75 BetVictor
36.4%
+18.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
45.1%
2.22
1.47 Betano
68.0%
-22.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
74.0%
1.35
1.62 William Hill
61.7%
+12.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
26.0%
3.85
2.38 Bet365
42.0%
-16.1
Match result
Draw
21.7%
4.61
3.60 Dafabet
27.8%
-6.1
Match result
De Graafschap
37.0%
2.71
4.00 Dafabet
25.0%
+12.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
90.6%
1.10
1.22 Betano
82.0%
+8.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
9.4%
10.59
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
-12.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
74.9%
1.34
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
+16.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
25.1%
3.98
2.30 Bet365
43.5%
-18.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Roda v De Graafschap: too close to call
Our model makes Roda 41% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 22% and De Graafschap at 37%. The goal projection is 2.01 for Roda against 1.90 for De Graafschap — a slight edge to Roda on expected output. A combined 3.91 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 75% and both teams to score at 74%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 8%
2-1 8%
2-2 7%
1-2 7%
3-1 5%
This season
Season records for Roda and De Graafschap
Roda
De Graafschap
1
Played
1
1-0-0
W-D-L
0-0-1
3.00
Pts / game
0.00
1.00
Goals for / game
0.00
0.00
Goals against / game
1.00
0%
Over 2.5
0%
0%
BTTS
0%
100%
Clean sheets
0%
0%
Failed to score
100%
1-0-0
Home record
0-0-0
0-0-0
Away record
0-0-1
W1
Streak
L1
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Roda · De Graafschap
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
Season per-match averages, produced
12.0
Shots
18.0
3.0
Shots on target
7.0
8.0
Corners
4.0
0.00
Cards
5.00
13.0
Fouls
20.0
50
Possession %
50
—
xG
—
1 matches
sample
1 matches
Conceded
Season per-match averages, conceded
18.0
Shots
12.0
7.0
Shots on target
3.0
4.0
Corners
8.0
5.00
Cards
0.00
20.0
Fouls
13.0
50
Possession %
50
—
xG
—
1 matches
sample
1 matches
Form comparison
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Roda
Metric
De Graafschap
1.00
Goals scored
1.40 (better)
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
1.26 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.17
—
Big chances *
—
3.20
Shots on target
4.60 (better)
12.20
Total shots
13.40 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
4.80
49.8
Possession %
54.6 (better)
451 (better)
Passes
426
—
Tackles
—
14.40
Fouls
11.60 (better)
2.40
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.60 (better)
Yellow cards
2.40
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.20
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Roda v 
De Graafschap