Rochdale v Swindon Town

20th1–013th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Rochdale		Swindon Town
15	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	2
11	Corners	5
7	Fouls	18
0	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	1
4	Offsides	0
468	Passes	307
60%	Possession %	40%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Rochdale 37%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.40 – 1.39

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Rochdale	36.8%	2.72	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	-7.6
Match result	Draw	26.8%	3.73	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	-0.2
Match result	Swindon Town	36.4%	2.75	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+4.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.3%	1.29	1.22 Bet365	82.0%	-4.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.7%	4.41	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+0.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.7%	1.90	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-9.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.3%	2.11	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	+2.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.5%	3.28	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-2.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.5%	1.44	1.52 Betano	65.8%	+3.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.2%	1.75	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-2.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.8%	2.34	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+3.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Rochdale v Swindon Town: too close to call

Our model makes Rochdale 37% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 27% and Swindon Town at 36%. The goal projection is 1.40 for Rochdale against 1.39 for Swindon Town — almost nothing to Rochdale on expected output. A combined 2.78 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 8%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Rochdale and Swindon Town
Rochdale		Swindon Town
14	Played	14
4-3-7	W-D-L	5-4-5
1.07	Pts / game	1.36
1.21	Goals for / game	1.07
1.86	Goals against / game	1.21
64%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	50%
29%	Clean sheets	14%
29%	Failed to score	50%
3-1-3	Home record	4-2-1
1-2-4	Away record	1-2-4
L2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rochdale · Swindon Town

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.6	Shots	12.4
3.7	Shots on target	3.6
5.7	Corners	4.6
1.29	Cards	1.14
10.9	Fouls	9.1
55	Possession %	48
0.94	xG	1.41
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.9	Shots	14.7
5.4	Shots on target	6.0
4.7	Corners	6.6
1.71	Cards	1.00
11.0	Fouls	8.0
45	Possession %	52
2.21	xG	1.78
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rochdale	Metric	Swindon Town
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.40
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
0.73	Expected goals (xG)	1.07 (better)
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	2.80
10.60 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	4.20 (better)
49.0 (better)	Possession %	48.8
417 (better)	Passes	400
	Tackles
11.00	Fouls	10.80 (better)
1.80	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.75	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
0.67	Red cards	0.25 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Rochdale wins: 1
Draws: 0
Swindon Town wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Rochdale v Swindon Town1–02026-10-03

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5