Rochdale v Grimsby

20th2–26th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Rochdale		Grimsby
16	Shots	23
5	Shots on target	7
7	Corners	10
13	Fouls	8
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
385	Passes	329
53%	Possession %	47%
2.10	xG	2.39

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Grimsby 43%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.44

Advised bets

Half lostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Rochdale -0.25

3.00Bet365 · fair 2.79 · qualifies at 2.87+ · 0.94u

Why this price?

Back Rochdale -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.00 with Bet365 — Rochdale must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 37%; we judge it at 36%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.79. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 7.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.94 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Rochdale 1.15, Grimsby 1.44.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Rochdale	29.4%	3.40	3.25 Dafabet	30.8%	-1.4
Match result	Draw	27.3%	3.66	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-0.4
Match result	Grimsby	43.3%	2.31	2.20 Dafabet	45.5%	-2.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.7%	1.36	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-6.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.3%	3.80	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+3.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.9%	2.09	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-9.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.1%	1.92	2.12 Betano	47.2%	+4.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.2%	3.82	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-8.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.8%	1.35	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+4.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.8%	1.90	1.65 Betfair	60.6%	-7.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.2%	2.12	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+3.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Grimsby favoured against Rochdale

Our model makes Rochdale 29% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 27% and Grimsby at 43%. The goal projection is 1.15 for Rochdale against 1.44 for Grimsby — a clear edge to Grimsby on expected output. A combined 2.59 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-0 8%; 1-0 8%

This season

Season records for Rochdale and Grimsby
Rochdale		Grimsby
14	Played	14
4-3-7	W-D-L	5-5-4
1.07	Pts / game	1.43
1.21	Goals for / game	1.71
1.86	Goals against / game	1.29
64%	Over 2.5	57%
50%	BTTS	57%
29%	Clean sheets	29%
29%	Failed to score	21%
3-1-3	Home record	4-1-2
1-2-4	Away record	1-4-2
L2	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rochdale · Grimsby

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.6	Shots	17.6
3.7	Shots on target	5.3
5.7	Corners	5.6
1.29	Cards	2.14
10.9	Fouls	10.6
55	Possession %	51
0.94	xG	2.34
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.9	Shots	11.6
5.4	Shots on target	4.6
4.7	Corners	6.1
1.71	Cards	2.43
11.0	Fouls	13.7
45	Possession %	49
2.21	xG	1.66
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rochdale	Metric	Grimsby
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
2.00	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.57 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.44
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.60
11.00	Total shots	13.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.60	Corners	5.80 (better)
53.6	Possession %	53.6
522 (better)	Passes	443
	Tackles
9.20 (better)	Fouls	12.20
1.80 (better)	Offsides	2.60
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	1.40
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Rochdale wins: 0
Draws: 1
Grimsby wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Rochdale v Grimsby2–22026-10-20

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5