Rijnsburgse Boys won 0 of the last 1L3–5Den Bosch won 1 of the last 1W
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Rijnsburgse Boys
Den Bosch
9
Shots
18
4
Shots on target
11
4
Corners
6
20
Fouls
14
3
Yellow cards
0
—
Red cards
—
3
Offsides
3
353
Passes
365
49%
Possession %
51%
—
xG
—
35%
21%
43%
1 · Rijnsburgse BoysXDen Bosch · 2
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
76%
Over 3.5
56%
Both score
75%
Model pick
Den Bosch 43%
Likely score
1-1 8%
Expected goals
1.89 – 2.10
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 2.5
24.0%
4.16
2.88 Bet365
34.7%
-10.7
Match result
Rijnsburgse Boys
35.2%
2.84
4.00 BetVictor
25.0%
+10.2
Match result
Draw
21.4%
4.68
4.30 Dafabet
23.3%
-1.9
Match result
Den Bosch
43.4%
2.30
2.10 William Hill
47.6%
-4.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
91.1%
1.10
1.13 Betano
88.5%
+2.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
8.9%
11.24
6.50 Bet365
15.4%
-6.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
76.0%
1.32
1.44 Bet365
69.4%
+6.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
56.4%
1.77
2.10 Bet365
47.6%
+8.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
43.6%
2.29
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
-11.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
74.8%
1.34
1.45 Betano
69.0%
+5.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
25.2%
3.97
2.80 Betfair
35.7%
-10.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Den Bosch favoured against Rijnsburgse Boys
Our model makes Rijnsburgse Boys 35% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 21% and Den Bosch at 43%. The goal projection is 1.89 for Rijnsburgse Boys against 2.10 for Den Bosch — a slight edge to Den Bosch on expected output. A combined 3.99 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 76% and both teams to score at 75%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rijnsburgse Boys
Metric
Den Bosch
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
1.80
Goals conceded
0.80 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
1.48
—
Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
4.20
—
Total shots
13.80
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
—
Corners
5.80
—
Possession %
46.0
—
Passes
358
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
10.60
—
Offsides
3.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
1.40
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Rijnsburgse Boys v 
Den Bosch