Ried v Austria Vienna

6th3–211th

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Ried		Austria Vienna
10	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	10
7	Fouls	11
4	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
321	Passes	464
40%	Possession %	60%
2.96	xG	1.96

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Ried 41%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.29

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Ried -0.5

2.25Bet365 · fair 2.01 · qualifies at 2.07+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Ried -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.25 with Bet365 — Ried must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 56%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.01. The offered 2.25 implies only 44%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Ried 1.46, Austria Vienna 1.29.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Ried	40.5%	2.47	2.45 BetVictor	40.8%	-0.3
Match result	Draw	26.7%	3.75	3.65 Dafabet	27.4%	-0.7
Match result	Austria Vienna	32.8%	3.05	3.00 Betano	33.3%	-0.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.5%	1.31	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-3.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.5%	4.26	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+1.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.7%	1.93	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-4.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.3%	2.07	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	+3.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.6%	3.38	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-6.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.4%	1.42	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+3.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.1%	1.78	1.65 Betfair	60.6%	-4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.9%	2.28	2.40 BetVictor	41.7%	+2.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Ried favoured against Austria Vienna

Our model makes Ried 40% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 27% and Austria Vienna at 33%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Ried against 1.29 for Austria Vienna — a slight edge to Ried on expected output. A combined 2.74 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 1-2 8%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Ried and Austria Vienna
Ried		Austria Vienna
12	Played	12
4-4-4	W-D-L	2-2-8
1.33	Pts / game	0.67
1.75	Goals for / game	0.92
1.83	Goals against / game	1.92
67%	Over 2.5	50%
92%	BTTS	50%
8%	Clean sheets	8%
0%	Failed to score	42%
3-1-2	Home record	1-0-4
1-3-2	Away record	1-2-4
L1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ried · Austria Vienna

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.3	Shots	13.4
5.3	Shots on target	3.2
3.5	Corners	6.0
2.17	Cards	1.40
10.2	Fouls	10.4
46	Possession %	57
2.03	xG	1.38
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
20.7	Shots	11.0
5.7	Shots on target	5.6
6.8	Corners	5.0
1.70	Cards	2.20
11.3	Fouls	10.4
54	Possession %	43
1.92	xG	2.04
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Ried	Metric	Austria Vienna
3.00	Goals scored	3.20 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
3.25 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.05
	Big chances
5.67 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
15.00 (better)	Total shots	11.33
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	6.00 (better)
46.0	Possession %	54.7 (better)
395	Passes	475 (better)
	Tackles
8.00	Fouls	8.00
0.67 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.33	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Ried wins: 1
Draws: 0
Austria Vienna wins: 2
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Ried v Austria Vienna3–22026-10-17
Ried v Austria Vienna0–22026-03-08
Austria Vienna v Ried3–22025-09-20

Austrian Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rapid Vienna	12	11	0	1	+30	33	Rapid Vienna won 5 of the last 5
2	Red Bull Salzburg	12	9	3	0	+24	30	Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of the last 5
3	Lask Linz	12	8	1	3	+15	25	Lask Linz won 3 of the last 5
4	TSV Hartberg	12	6	2	4	+4	20	TSV Hartberg won 4 of the last 5
5	Sturm Graz	12	5	4	3	+5	19	Sturm Graz won 2 of the last 5
6	Ried	12	4	4	4	-1	16	Ried won 2 of the last 5
7	WSG Wattens	12	3	4	5	-3	13	WSG Wattens won 1 of the last 5
8	Austria Lustenau	12	3	2	7	-15	11	Austria Lustenau won 1 of the last 5
9	SCR Altach	12	3	1	8	-9	10	SCR Altach won 2 of the last 5
10	Grazer AK	12	2	4	6	-20	10	Grazer AK won 0 of the last 5
11	Austria Vienna	12	2	2	8	-12	8	Austria Vienna won 0 of the last 5
12	Wolfsberger AC	12	1	3	8	-18	6	Wolfsberger AC won 0 of the last 5