Renaissance Berkane won 2 of the last 2WW1–0Star Sport Academy won 0 of the last 4LLDD
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Renaissance Berkane
Star Sport Academy
8
Shots
5
1
Shots on target
1
12
Corners
0
—
Fouls
—
0
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
54%
Possession %
46%
—
xG
—
47%
30%
24%
1 · Renaissance BerkaneXStar Sport Academy · 2
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
17%
Both score
43%
Model pick
Renaissance Berkane 47%
Likely score
1-0 14%
Expected goals
1.31 – 0.85
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
57.4%
1.74
1.40 William Hill
71.4%
-14.0
Match result
Renaissance Berkane
46.7%
2.14
1.06 William Hill
94.3%
-47.6
Match result
Draw
29.7%
3.37
15.00 Bet365
6.7%
+23.0
Match result
Star Sport Academy
23.6%
4.23
61.00 William Hill
1.6%
+22.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
64.3%
1.55
1.04 BetVictor
96.2%
-31.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
35.6%
2.81
9.00 BetVictor
11.1%
+24.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
36.8%
2.72
1.33 BetVictor
75.2%
-38.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
63.2%
1.58
3.90 BetVictor
25.6%
+37.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
17.4%
5.75
1.88 BetVictor
53.2%
-35.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
82.6%
1.21
2.01 BetVictor
49.8%
+32.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
42.6%
2.35
3.20 William Hill
31.3%
+11.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Renaissance Berkane favoured against Star Sport Academy
Our model makes Renaissance Berkane 47% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 30% and Star Sport Academy at 24%. The goal projection is 1.31 for Renaissance Berkane against 0.85 for Star Sport Academy — a clear edge to Renaissance Berkane on expected output. A combined 2.17 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-0 14%
1-1 13%
0-0 12%
2-0 10%
0-1 9%
This season
Season records for Renaissance Berkane and Star Sport Academy
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Renaissance Berkane
Metric
Star Sport Academy
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
0.50
0.60
Goals conceded
0.50 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
5.00
Shots on target
—
11.50
Total shots
—
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.50
Corners
—
64.5
Possession %
—
—
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.67
Yellow cards
—
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Renaissance Berkane v 
Star Sport Academy