Remo v Gremio

19th1–118th

22:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Remo		Gremio
23	Shots	17
9	Shots on target	5
10	Corners	4
11	Fouls	16
3	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
581	Passes	358
62%	Possession %	38%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Remo 36%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.31

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Remo -0.5

2.18Betano · fair 1.99 · qualifies at 2.05+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Remo -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.18 with Betano — Remo must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 60%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.99. The offered 2.18 implies only 46%, so the price is 9.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Remo 1.32, Gremio 1.31.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.7%	2.19	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-0.8
Match result	Remo	36.3%	2.75	2.40 Bet365	41.7%	-5.3
Match result	Draw	27.7%	3.61	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	-0.9
Match result	Gremio	36.0%	2.78	3.80 Betano	26.3%	+9.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.7%	1.34	1.30 Betano	76.9%	-2.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.3%	3.94	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-1.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.0%	2.04	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	-3.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.0%	1.96	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-0.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.1%	3.69	3.25 BetVictor	30.8%	-3.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.9%	1.37	1.38 Betano	72.5%	+0.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.3%	1.84	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-2.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Remo v Gremio: too close to call

Our model makes Remo 36% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 28% and Gremio at 36%. The goal projection is 1.32 for Remo against 1.31 for Gremio — almost nothing to Remo on expected output. A combined 2.63 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 9%; 0-1 9%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Remo and Gremio
Remo		Gremio
34	Played	34
6-11-17	W-D-L	9-10-15
0.85	Pts / game	1.09
1.09	Goals for / game	1.12
1.68	Goals against / game	1.38
50%	Over 2.5	44%
62%	BTTS	59%
12%	Clean sheets	24%
32%	Failed to score	29%
4-7-6	Home record	8-5-4
2-4-11	Away record	1-5-11
L1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Remo · Gremio

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.7	Shots	13.7
4.8	Shots on target	4.7
6.8	Corners	5.7
2.33	Cards	2.91
13.2	Fouls	14.1
47	Possession %	44
0.61	xG	1.44
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.2	Shots	18.0
5.2	Shots on target	6.3
5.5	Corners	7.4
1.33	Cards	2.57
14.8	Fouls	14.4
53	Possession %	56
2.03	xG	1.47
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Remo	Metric	Gremio
1.00	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.35 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.57
	Big chances
3.20	Shots on target	4.40 (better)
15.00 (better)	Total shots	10.60
	Touches in opp. box
5.80 (better)	Corners	2.60
42.0	Possession %	47.4 (better)
385	Passes	434 (better)
	Tackles
10.20 (better)	Fouls	13.60
1.80	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	3.60
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Remo wins: 0
Draws: 2
Gremio wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 50%

Remo v Gremio1–12026-10-07
Gremio v Remo0–02026-04-05

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38	Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5