Reims v Sochaux

4th2–016th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Reims		Sochaux
11	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	2
3	Corners	9
11	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
427	Passes	463
47%	Possession %	53%
1.54	xG	1.00

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Reims 51%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.62 – 0.99

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Reims	51.3%	1.95	1.76 Dafabet	56.8%	-5.5
Match result	Draw	26.0%	3.84	4.10 Dafabet	24.4%	+1.6
Match result	Sochaux	22.6%	4.42	5.60 Betano	17.9%	+4.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.0%	1.35	1.24 Betano	80.6%	-6.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.0%	3.84	4.10 Betano	24.4%	+1.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.3%	2.07	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-7.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.7%	1.94	2.18 Betano	45.9%	+5.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.6%	3.77	3.05 Betano	32.8%	-6.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.4%	1.36	1.50 Betano	66.7%	+6.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.0%	1.96	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-4.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.0%	2.04	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	+1.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Reims favoured against Sochaux

Our model makes Reims 51% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 26% and Sochaux at 23%. The goal projection is 1.62 for Reims against 0.99 for Sochaux — a substantial edge to Reims on expected output. A combined 2.61 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 11%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Reims and Sochaux
Reims		Sochaux
12	Played	12
5-6-1	W-D-L	2-5-5
1.75	Pts / game	0.92
2.00	Goals for / game	0.67
1.25	Goals against / game	1.25
58%	Over 2.5	25%
75%	BTTS	42%
25%	Clean sheets	33%
17%	Failed to score	42%
3-3-0	Home record	2-1-2
2-3-1	Away record	0-4-3
L1	Streak	L4

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Reims · Sochaux

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.6	Shots	13.6
5.4	Shots on target	3.6
5.0	Corners	7.2
1.80	Cards	2.00
12.6	Fouls	14.8
54	Possession %	52
0.97	xG	1.11
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.0	Shots	11.0
4.0	Shots on target	5.0
5.4	Corners	4.4
1.80	Cards	1.60
16.4	Fouls	13.4
46	Possession %	48
1.38	xG	1.70
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Reims	Metric	Sochaux
1.40	Goals scored	1.40
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	1.85
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.25
12.00 (better)	Total shots	11.50
	Touches in opp. box
3.50	Corners	5.00 (better)
42.0	Possession %	44.0 (better)
400 (better)	Passes	373
	Tackles
14.25 (better)	Fouls	15.25
0.75 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.75	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Reims wins: 1
Draws: 0
Sochaux wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Reims v Sochaux2–02026-11-02

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5