Predicted Edge

Redditch United v Berkhamsted

Redditch United won 2 of the last 40–2Berkhamsted won 4 of the last 5
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
47%
Both score
69%
Model pick
Redditch United 48%
Likely score
1-1 9%
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.55

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultRedditch United48.0%2.082.22 Betano45.0%+3.0
Match resultDraw22.6%4.423.50 Betfair28.6%-6.0
Match resultBerkhamsted29.4%3.403.10 Betano32.3%-2.9
Total goalsOver 1.587.5%1.141.23 Betano81.3%+6.2
Total goalsUnder 1.512.5%7.983.90 BetVictor25.6%-13.1
Total goalsOver 2.568.8%1.451.75 Bet36557.1%+11.7
Total goalsUnder 2.531.2%3.212.05 Bet36548.8%-17.6
Total goalsOver 3.547.4%2.112.90 BetVictor34.5%+12.9
Total goalsUnder 3.552.6%1.901.38 Betano72.5%-19.9
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes68.6%1.461.62 William Hill61.7%+6.9
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No31.4%3.192.20 BetVictor45.5%-14.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Redditch United favoured against Berkhamsted

Our model makes Redditch United 48% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 23% and Berkhamsted at 29%. The goal projection is 2.01 for Redditch United against 1.55 for Berkhamsted — a clear edge to Redditch United on expected output. A combined 3.55 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 9%
2-1 9%
2-2 7%
1-2 7%
3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Redditch United and Berkhamsted
Redditch United Berkhamsted
4Played5
2-1-1W-D-L4-1-0
1.75Pts / game2.60
2.00Goals for / game2.40
0.75Goals against / game1.00
50%Over 2.560%
25%BTTS80%
50%Clean sheets20%
25%Failed to score0%
2-0-1Home record1-0-0
0-1-0Away record3-1-0
L1StreakD1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Redditch United · Berkhamsted

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots11.5
—Shots on target3.0
—Corners4.0
—Cards2.00
—Fouls15.0
—Possession %34
—xG—
—sample2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots19.0
—Shots on target5.0
—Corners6.5
—Cards1.50
—Fouls15.0
—Possession %66
—xG—
—sample2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Redditch UnitedMetricBerkhamsted
2.20 (better)Goals scored1.80
0.60 (better)Goals conceded0.80
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Redditch United wins
0
Draws
0
Berkhamsted wins
1
Goals / game
2.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%