RED Star FC 93 v Saint Etienne

8th0–11st

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
RED Star FC 93		Saint Etienne
5	Shots	9
1	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	5
16	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
534	Passes	389
58%	Possession %	42%
0.32	xG	0.96

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Saint Etienne 47%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.72

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	RED Star FC 93	28.2%	3.55	3.15 Betano	31.7%	-3.6
Match result	Draw	24.7%	4.05	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-3.9
Match result	Saint Etienne	47.1%	2.12	2.32 Betano	43.1%	+4.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.8%	1.24	1.30 Betano	76.9%	+3.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.2%	5.22	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	-5.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.0%	1.72	1.91 Betano	52.4%	+5.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.0%	2.38	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-6.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.6%	2.81	3.15 Betano	31.7%	+3.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.4%	1.55	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-7.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.1%	1.66	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	+2.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.9%	2.50	2.20 BetVictor	45.5%	-5.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Saint Etienne favoured against RED Star FC 93

Our model makes RED Star FC 93 28% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 25% and Saint Etienne at 47%. The goal projection is 1.29 for RED Star FC 93 against 1.72 for Saint Etienne — a clear edge to Saint Etienne on expected output. A combined 3.01 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-2 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne
RED Star FC 93		Saint Etienne
12	Played	12
5-2-5	W-D-L	9-1-2
1.42	Pts / game	2.33
1.17	Goals for / game	2.08
1.42	Goals against / game	0.92
50%	Over 2.5	67%
58%	BTTS	42%
25%	Clean sheets	50%
25%	Failed to score	8%
1-1-3	Home record	6-0-0
4-1-2	Away record	3-1-2
L4	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. RED Star FC 93 · Saint Etienne

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.2	Shots	13.0
3.4	Shots on target	3.8
4.8	Corners	6.2
1.80	Cards	2.40
15.8	Fouls	14.8
52	Possession %	58
1.18	xG	1.56
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.2	Shots	6.8
3.8	Shots on target	2.4
4.2	Corners	4.2
1.80	Cards	2.20
15.8	Fouls	13.4
48	Possession %	42
1.26	xG	0.64
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
RED Star FC 93	Metric	Saint Etienne
1.60	Goals scored	2.80 (better)
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
5.60	Shots on target	6.75 (better)
15.20 (better)	Total shots	13.50
	Touches in opp. box
5.60 (better)	Corners	4.25
51.6 (better)	Possession %	49.8
451	Passes	484 (better)
	Tackles
19.80	Fouls	18.25 (better)
3.80 (better)	Offsides	6.33
	Throw-ins
3.20	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

RED Star FC 93 wins: 1
Draws: 0
Saint Etienne wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

RED Star FC 93 v Saint Etienne0–12026-10-17
Saint Etienne v RED Star FC 932–02026-03-07
RED Star FC 93 v Saint Etienne2–12025-11-01

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5