RED Star FC 93 v Nancy

8th1–42nd

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
RED Star FC 93		Nancy
11	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	6
13	Corners	3
12	Fouls	19
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	3
531	Passes	342
61%	Possession %	39%
1.83	xG	1.71

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: RED Star FC 93 38%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.33 – 1.25

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Nancy

3.25Betano · fair 3.12 · qualifies at 3.21+ · 0.48u

Why this price?

Back Nancy to win at 3.25 with Betano.

Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 31%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.12. The offered 3.25 implies only 31%, so the price is 4.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.48 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: RED Star FC 93 1.33, Nancy 1.25.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.5%	3.77	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-2.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.6%	2.10	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-1.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.4%	1.91	1.88 Betano	53.2%	-0.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.9%	3.85	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-1.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.1%	1.35	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-0.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.1%	1.88	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-2.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.9%	2.13	2.07 Betano	48.3%	-1.4
Match result	RED Star FC 93	38.1%	2.63	2.41 Dafabet	41.5%	-3.4
Match result	Draw	27.7%	3.60	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-1.7
Match result	Nancy	34.2%	2.93	3.05 Betano	32.8%	+1.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.5%	1.36	1.32 Betano	75.8%	-2.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

RED Star FC 93 v Nancy: too close to call

Our model makes RED Star FC 93 38% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 28% and Nancy at 34%. The goal projection is 1.33 for RED Star FC 93 against 1.25 for Nancy — almost nothing to RED Star FC 93 on expected output. A combined 2.58 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 9%; 0-1 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for RED Star FC 93 and Nancy
RED Star FC 93		Nancy
12	Played	12
5-2-5	W-D-L	8-1-3
1.42	Pts / game	2.08
1.17	Goals for / game	1.42
1.42	Goals against / game	0.75
50%	Over 2.5	33%
58%	BTTS	33%
25%	Clean sheets	50%
25%	Failed to score	25%
1-1-3	Home record	4-0-2
4-1-2	Away record	4-1-1
L4	Streak	W6

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. RED Star FC 93 · Nancy

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.2	Shots	12.8
3.4	Shots on target	4.8
4.8	Corners	4.4
1.80	Cards	2.00
15.8	Fouls	15.6
52	Possession %	48
1.18	xG	1.68
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.2	Shots	8.0
3.8	Shots on target	2.4
4.2	Corners	5.4
1.80	Cards	2.80
15.8	Fouls	14.6
48	Possession %	52
1.26	xG	0.95
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
RED Star FC 93	Metric	Nancy
1.80	Goals scored	1.80
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
0.32	Expected goals (xG)	0.88 (better)
	Big chances
6.20 (better)	Shots on target	5.50
15.60	Total shots	16.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	5.00
53.8	Possession %	54.5 (better)
480	Passes	490 (better)
	Tackles
21.40	Fouls	14.00 (better)
2.20 (better)	Offsides	3.75
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	1.75 (better)
0.33 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

RED Star FC 93 wins: 2
Draws: 0
Nancy wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

RED Star FC 93 v Nancy1–42026-11-02
RED Star FC 93 v Nancy2–12026-02-13
Nancy v RED Star FC 930–12025-09-19

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5