Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of the last 5WWWWD2nd3–0SCR Altach won 2 of the last 5LDWLW9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Red Bull Salzburg
SCR Altach
20
Shots
13
8
Shots on target
3
6
Corners
1
10
Fouls
14
0
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
3
594
Passes
310
65%
Possession %
35%
2.94
xG
0.58
68%
20%
1 · Red Bull SalzburgXSCR Altach · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
48%
Model pick
Red Bull Salzburg 68%
Likely score
2-0 12%
Expected goals
2.13 – 0.78
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Red Bull Salzburg
68.0%
1.47
1.42 Betano
70.4%
-2.4
Match result
Draw
20.1%
4.97
5.25 Bet365
19.0%
+1.1
Match result
SCR Altach
11.9%
8.42
8.00 William Hill
12.5%
-0.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.2%
1.26
1.16 Betano
86.2%
-7.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.8%
4.80
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
+4.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
55.5%
1.80
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-13.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
44.5%
2.25
2.70 Bet365
37.0%
+7.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
33.1%
3.02
2.22 Betano
45.0%
-11.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
66.9%
1.50
1.65 Betano
60.6%
+6.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
48.1%
2.08
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
-10.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
51.9%
1.93
2.22 Betano
45.0%
+6.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Red Bull Salzburg favoured against SCR Altach
Our model makes Red Bull Salzburg 68% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 20% and SCR Altach at 12%. The goal projection is 2.13 for Red Bull Salzburg against 0.78 for SCR Altach — a commanding edge to Red Bull Salzburg on expected output. A combined 2.90 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Red Bull Salzburg is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 32% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-0 12%
1-0 11%
2-1 10%
1-1 10%
3-0 9%
This season
Season records for Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Red Bull Salzburg
Metric
SCR Altach
1.20
Goals scored
2.60 (better)
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
1.35 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.82
—
Big chances *
—
6.00 (better)
Shots on target
2.67
15.75 (better)
Total shots
11.67
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
4.33
60.3 (better)
Possession %
52.0
517 (better)
Passes
400
—
Tackles
—
12.25
Fouls
9.33 (better)
2.00 (better)
Offsides
4.50
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.50
Yellow cards
2.00 (better)
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Red Bull Salzburg v 
SCR Altach