Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of the last 5WWWWD2nd5–1Austria Lustenau won 1 of the last 5WLLLL8th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Red Bull Salzburg
Austria Lustenau
31
Shots
10
10
Shots on target
4
15
Corners
5
7
Fouls
10
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
3
Offsides
3
602
Passes
305
66%
Possession %
34%
3.63
xG
1.35
74%
15%
1 · Red Bull SalzburgXAustria Lustenau · 2
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
73%
Over 3.5
53%
Both score
60%
Model pick
Red Bull Salzburg 74%
Likely score
2-1 9%
Expected goals
2.81 – 1.00
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Red Bull Salzburg
74.4%
1.34
1.17 Betano
85.5%
-11.0
Match result
Draw
15.1%
6.62
9.00 BetVictor
11.1%
+4.0
Match result
Austria Lustenau
10.4%
9.58
17.00 BetVictor
5.9%
+4.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
89.7%
1.11
1.08 Bet365
92.6%
-2.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
10.3%
9.67
10.00 Bet365
10.0%
+0.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
73.3%
1.36
1.26 Betano
79.4%
-6.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
26.7%
3.74
4.50 Betfair
22.2%
+4.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
52.8%
1.89
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-7.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
47.2%
2.12
2.40 Betfair
41.7%
+5.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.8%
1.67
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
+2.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.2%
2.49
2.15 William Hill
46.5%
-6.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Red Bull Salzburg favoured against Austria Lustenau
Our model makes Red Bull Salzburg 74% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 15% and Austria Lustenau at 10%. The goal projection is 2.81 for Red Bull Salzburg against 1.00 for Austria Lustenau — a commanding edge to Red Bull Salzburg on expected output. A combined 3.81 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 73% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Red Bull Salzburg is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 26% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-1 9%
2-0 9%
3-1 8%
3-0 8%
1-1 7%
This season
Season records for Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Red Bull Salzburg
Metric
Austria Lustenau
1.20
Goals scored
1.60 (better)
1.60 (better)
Goals conceded
2.00
1.68 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.90
—
Big chances *
—
4.50 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
15.25 (better)
Total shots
11.33
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.50 (better)
Corners
3.67
58.5 (better)
Possession %
44.0
528 (better)
Passes
346
—
Tackles
—
11.00 (better)
Fouls
12.67
1.25
Offsides
0.33 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.25 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Red Bull Salzburg v 
Austria Lustenau