Recreativo Huelva won 0 of the last 1D1–12–3 aetRayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5LWLDD14th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Recreativo Huelva
Rayo Vallecano
12
Shots
35
6
Shots on target
8
0
Corners
15
14
Fouls
18
4
Yellow cards
4
1
Red cards
1
0
Offsides
1
394
Passes
787
33%
Possession %
67%
—
xG
—
26%
25%
49%
1 · Recreativo HuelvaXRayo Vallecano · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
57%
Model pick
Rayo Vallecano 49%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.70
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Over 3.5
32.6%
3.06
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-5.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.4%
1.49
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
+0.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
57.3%
1.75
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
+3.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
42.7%
2.34
2.00 William Hill
50.0%
-7.3
Match result
Recreativo Huelva
26.2%
3.82
7.00 Bet365
14.3%
+11.9
Match result
Draw
25.1%
3.98
4.70 Dafabet
21.3%
+3.8
Match result
Rayo Vallecano
48.7%
2.05
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
-16.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.8%
1.27
1.22 BetVictor
82.0%
-3.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.2%
4.72
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
-1.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
55.0%
1.82
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-4.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
45.0%
2.22
2.25 Bet365
44.4%
+0.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Rayo Vallecano favoured against Recreativo Huelva
Our model makes Recreativo Huelva 26% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 25% and Rayo Vallecano at 49%. The goal projection is 1.19 for Recreativo Huelva against 1.70 for Rayo Vallecano — a substantial edge to Rayo Vallecano on expected output. A combined 2.88 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-2 10%
0-1 9%
0-2 8%
2-1 7%
This season
Season records for Recreativo Huelva and Rayo Vallecano
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Recreativo Huelva
Metric
Rayo Vallecano
1.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.60
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
1.21
—
Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
3.40
—
Total shots
15.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
—
Corners
4.20
—
Possession %
56.6
—
Passes
398
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
9.40
—
Offsides
1.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
2.20
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Recreativo Huelva v 
Rayo Vallecano