Predicted Edge

Recreativa de Lamelas v Vitória SC

Recreativa de Lamelas won 1 of the last 20–1Vitória SC won 1 of the last 514th
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
39%
Both score
62%
Model pick
Recreativa de Lamelas 50%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.32

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultRecreativa de Lamelas49.6%2.0271.00 BetVictor1.4%+48.1
Match resultDraw23.7%4.2215.00 Bet3656.7%+17.0
Match resultVitória SC26.7%3.741.04 BetVictor96.2%-69.4
Total goalsOver 1.583.0%1.211.10 Bet36590.9%-7.9
Total goalsUnder 1.517.0%5.888.00 BetVictor12.5%+4.5
Total goalsOver 2.561.4%1.631.29 BetVictor77.5%-16.2
Total goalsUnder 2.538.6%2.595.00 Bet36520.0%+18.6
Total goalsOver 3.539.1%2.561.83 Bet36554.6%-15.6
Total goalsUnder 3.560.9%1.642.04 BetVictor49.0%+11.9
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes62.2%1.616.00 BetVictor16.7%+45.6
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No37.8%2.651.25 BetVictor80.0%-42.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Recreativa de Lamelas favoured against Vitória SC

Our model makes Recreativa de Lamelas 50% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 24% and Vitória SC at 27%. The goal projection is 1.85 for Recreativa de Lamelas against 1.32 for Vitória SC — a substantial edge to Recreativa de Lamelas on expected output. A combined 3.17 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-0 7%
2-0 7%
1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Recreativa de Lamelas and Vitória SC
Recreativa de Lamelas Vitória SC
2Played11
1-0-1W-D-L2-3-6
1.50Pts / game0.82
2.00Goals for / game1.00
1.00Goals against / game1.09
50%Over 2.536%
50%BTTS36%
0%Clean sheets36%
50%Failed to score45%
1-0-1Home record2-2-2
0-0-0Away record0-1-4
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Recreativa de Lamelas · Vitória SC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots13.4
—Shots on target4.2
—Corners4.4
—Cards3.00
—Fouls16.4
—Possession %52
—xG0.92
—sample5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots12.4
—Shots on target3.0
—Corners4.6
—Cards2.75
—Fouls12.2
—Possession %48
—xG1.25
—sample5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Recreativa de LamelasMetricVitória SC
1.20 (better)Goals scored0.60
1.60Goals conceded0.80 (better)
Expected goals (xG)1.53
Big chances
Shots on target5.50
Total shots18.75
Touches in opp. box
Corners7.50
Possession %60.0
Passes502
Tackles
Fouls13.75
Offsides1.25
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.67
Red cards1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Recreativa de Lamelas wins
0
Draws
0
Vitória SC wins
1
Goals / game
1.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%