Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5WLWWW5th3–2Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5DWLDL9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Real Sociedad
Deportivo La Coruna
12
Shots
21
4
Shots on target
7
7
Corners
10
14
Fouls
13
1
Yellow cards
2
1
Red cards
1
4
Offsides
0
347
Passes
515
40%
Possession %
60%
1.53
xG
2.00
41%
25%
34%
1 · Real SociedadXDeportivo La Coruna · 2
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
38%
Both score
63%
Model pick
Real Sociedad 41%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.48
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Real Sociedad
41.0%
2.44
1.78 Betano
56.2%
-15.1
Match result
Draw
24.8%
4.04
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
+0.9
Match result
Deportivo La Coruna
34.2%
2.92
5.75 Bet365
17.4%
+16.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
82.3%
1.21
1.28 Bet365
78.1%
+4.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
17.7%
5.66
4.33 Bet365
23.1%
-5.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
60.3%
1.66
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
+8.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
39.7%
2.52
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-6.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
38.0%
2.63
3.00 Bet365
33.3%
+4.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
62.0%
1.61
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-6.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
62.8%
1.59
1.78 Betano
56.2%
+6.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
37.2%
2.69
2.25 Betfair
44.4%
-7.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Real Sociedad favoured against Deportivo La Coruna
Our model makes Real Sociedad 41% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 25% and Deportivo La Coruna at 34%. The goal projection is 1.64 for Real Sociedad against 1.48 for Deportivo La Coruna — a slight edge to Real Sociedad on expected output. A combined 3.12 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
1-0 7%
2-2 7%
This season
Season records for Real Sociedad and Deportivo La Coruna
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Real Sociedad
Metric
Deportivo La Coruna
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.80
Goals conceded
1.60 (better)
1.14 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.03
—
Big chances *
—
5.00 (better)
Shots on target
4.33
14.80 (better)
Total shots
12.67
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
8.40 (better)
Corners
7.33
49.2
Possession %
53.3 (better)
474
Passes
478 (better)
—
Tackles
—
12.40
Fouls
10.00 (better)
1.40 (better)
Offsides
2.50
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.20
Yellow cards
1.00 (better)
0.67 (better)
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
Real Sociedad v 
Deportivo La Coruna