Real Sociedad II v Granada CF

17th2–35th

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Real Sociedad II		Granada CF
17	Shots	23
6	Shots on target	5
1	Corners	7
15	Fouls	9
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
432	Passes	462
47%	Possession %	53%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Real Sociedad II 38%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.33

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Real Sociedad II -0.25

2.20Bet365 · fair 2.05 · qualifies at 2.11+ · 1.51u

Why this price?

Back Real Sociedad II -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.20 with Bet365 — Real Sociedad II must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 52%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.05. The offered 2.20 implies only 45%, so the price is 7.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.51 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Real Sociedad II 1.42, Granada CF 1.33.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Draw	27.0%	3.71	3.30 Betano	30.3%	-3.3
Match result	Real Sociedad II	38.4%	2.61	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	+0.2
Match result	Granada CF	34.7%	2.88	2.77 Betano	36.1%	-1.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.8%	1.30	1.31 Betano	76.3%	+0.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.2%	4.30	3.55 Betano	28.2%	-4.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.9%	1.93	1.98 Betano	50.5%	+1.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.1%	2.08	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-3.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.7%	3.37	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	+1.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.3%	1.42	1.36 Betano	73.5%	-3.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.5%	1.77	1.73 William Hill	57.8%	-1.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.5%	2.30	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-3.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Real Sociedad II v Granada CF: too close to call

Our model makes Real Sociedad II 38% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 27% and Granada CF at 35%. The goal projection is 1.42 for Real Sociedad II against 1.33 for Granada CF — almost nothing to Real Sociedad II on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-2 8%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Real Sociedad II and Granada CF
Real Sociedad II		Granada CF
13	Played	12
3-3-7	W-D-L	7-2-3
0.92	Pts / game	1.92
1.15	Goals for / game	1.67
1.69	Goals against / game	1.17
54%	Over 2.5	50%
62%	BTTS	50%
15%	Clean sheets	42%
31%	Failed to score	17%
1-1-4	Home record	3-1-1
2-2-3	Away record	4-1-2
D1	Streak	W5

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Real Sociedad II · Granada CF

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.6	Shots	14.7
4.4	Shots on target	4.6
5.0	Corners	4.9
3.62	Cards	1.86
18.1	Fouls	11.6
48	Possession %	49
1.60	xG	1.42
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.4	Shots	14.6
5.0	Shots on target	6.3
4.6	Corners	4.1
2.31	Cards	3.74
10.9	Fouls	15.6
52	Possession %	51
1.19	xG	0.86
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Real Sociedad II	Metric	Granada CF
1.20	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	2.20
1.09 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.03
	Big chances
2.50	Shots on target	4.60 (better)
9.50	Total shots	18.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.75	Corners	6.00 (better)
38.0	Possession %	56.0 (better)
305	Passes	412 (better)
	Tackles
19.25	Fouls	13.00 (better)
2.00	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.20 (better)
2.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Real Sociedad II wins: 0
Draws: 0
Granada CF wins: 3
Goals / game: 4.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Real Sociedad II v Granada CF2–32026-10-04
Real Sociedad II v Granada CF0–22026-03-22
Granada CF v Real Sociedad II5–22025-10-04

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5