Real Sociedad II v Girona

17th1–08th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Real Sociedad II		Girona
14	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	3
3	Corners	1
27	Fouls	9
6	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	1
3	Offsides	3
512	Passes	359
59%	Possession %	41%
1.45	xG	0.58

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Girona 50%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.07 – 1.64

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Real Sociedad II	24.3%	4.11	3.60 Bet365	27.8%	-3.4
Match result	Draw	25.7%	3.88	3.70 Dafabet	27.0%	-1.3
Match result	Girona	49.9%	2.00	2.05 Betano	48.8%	+1.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.0%	1.32	1.24 Betano	80.6%	-4.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.0%	4.16	4.60 BetVictor	21.7%	+2.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.0%	1.96	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-7.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.0%	2.04	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	+4.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.9%	3.46	2.77 Betano	36.1%	-7.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.1%	1.41	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.6%	1.86	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-8.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.4%	2.16	2.50 Betfair	40.0%	+6.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Girona favoured against Real Sociedad II

Our model makes Real Sociedad II 24% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 26% and Girona at 50%. The goal projection is 1.07 for Real Sociedad II against 1.64 for Girona — a substantial edge to Girona on expected output. A combined 2.71 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-2 9%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Real Sociedad II and Girona
Real Sociedad II		Girona
13	Played	13
3-3-7	W-D-L	6-3-4
0.92	Pts / game	1.62
1.15	Goals for / game	1.69
1.69	Goals against / game	0.92
54%	Over 2.5	38%
62%	BTTS	54%
15%	Clean sheets	31%
31%	Failed to score	23%
1-1-4	Home record	4-2-2
2-2-3	Away record	2-1-2
D1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Real Sociedad II · Girona

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.6	Shots	14.6
4.4	Shots on target	4.3
5.0	Corners	4.0
3.62	Cards	2.14
18.1	Fouls	11.6
48	Possession %	51
1.60	xG	1.47
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.4	Shots	10.9
5.0	Shots on target	3.0
4.6	Corners	4.4
2.31	Cards	3.71
10.9	Fouls	17.3
52	Possession %	49
1.19	xG	0.85
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Real Sociedad II	Metric	Girona
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
2.80	Goals conceded	0.40 (better)
2.13 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.47
	Big chances
5.50 (better)	Shots on target	4.60
16.50 (better)	Total shots	14.40
	Touches in opp. box
5.75 (better)	Corners	3.40
45.3	Possession %	49.6 (better)
393	Passes	432 (better)
	Tackles
17.00	Fouls	11.40 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.60
	Throw-ins
3.25	Yellow cards	2.20 (better)
2.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Real Sociedad II wins: 1
Draws: 0
Girona wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Real Sociedad II v Girona1–02026-10-31

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5