Real Sociedad II v Almeria

17th2–41st

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Real Sociedad II		Almeria
21	Shots	7
9	Shots on target	4
10	Corners	2
14	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	0
487	Passes	453
53%	Possession %	47%
2.53	xG	1.47

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 37%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Almeria 48%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.78

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Real Sociedad II -0.5

3.25Betano · fair 2.93 · qualifies at 3.02+ · 1.22u

Why this price?

Back Real Sociedad II -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 3.25 with Betano — Real Sociedad II must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 27% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 34%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.93. The offered 3.25 implies only 31%, so the price is 11.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.22 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Real Sociedad II 1.29, Almeria 1.78.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Real Sociedad II	27.3%	3.66	3.70 Bet365	27.0%	+0.3
Match result	Draw	24.3%	4.12	3.65 Betano	27.4%	-3.1
Match result	Almeria	48.4%	2.06	2.13 Dafabet	46.9%	+1.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.7%	1.22	1.24 Betano	80.6%	+1.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.3%	5.46	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-4.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.3%	1.69	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+2.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.7%	2.46	2.18 Betano	45.9%	-5.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.9%	2.71	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+2.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.1%	1.58	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-4.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.8%	1.64	1.65 William Hill	60.6%	+0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.2%	2.55	2.32 Betano	43.1%	-3.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Almeria favoured against Real Sociedad II

Our model makes Real Sociedad II 27% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 24% and Almeria at 48%. The goal projection is 1.29 for Real Sociedad II against 1.78 for Almeria — a clear edge to Almeria on expected output. A combined 3.07 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-2 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for Real Sociedad II and Almeria
Real Sociedad II		Almeria
13	Played	13
3-3-7	W-D-L	9-2-2
0.92	Pts / game	2.23
1.15	Goals for / game	1.85
1.69	Goals against / game	0.77
54%	Over 2.5	46%
62%	BTTS	38%
15%	Clean sheets	46%
31%	Failed to score	15%
1-1-4	Home record	5-1-0
2-2-3	Away record	4-1-2
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Real Sociedad II · Almeria

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.6	Shots	13.8
4.4	Shots on target	4.6
5.0	Corners	3.9
3.62	Cards	2.00
18.1	Fouls	13.6
48	Possession %	52
1.60	xG	1.35
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.4	Shots	15.4
5.0	Shots on target	4.4
4.6	Corners	5.8
2.31	Cards	3.75
10.9	Fouls	15.5
52	Possession %	48
1.19	xG	1.17
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Real Sociedad II	Metric	Almeria
1.60	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
2.40	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
1.21	Expected goals (xG)	1.75 (better)
	Big chances
3.33	Shots on target	5.20 (better)
10.67	Total shots	14.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.67	Corners	3.00 (better)
39.0	Possession %	52.8 (better)
319	Passes	467 (better)
	Tackles
18.00	Fouls	15.60 (better)
0.33 (better)	Offsides	1.00
	Throw-ins
3.33	Yellow cards	2.60 (better)
2.00	Red cards	1.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Real Sociedad II wins: 0
Draws: 1
Almeria wins: 2
Goals / game: 5.33
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5