Real Madrid v Villarreal

2nd1–08th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Real Madrid		Villarreal
11	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	4
9	Corners	3
8	Fouls	13
5	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
406	Passes	478
46%	Possession %	54%
1.47	xG	0.62

Over 1.5: 90%
Over 2.5: 74%
Over 3.5: 53%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Real Madrid 66%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.61 – 1.23

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Real Madrid	66.4%	1.51	1.40 Betano	71.4%	-5.0
Match result	Draw	17.9%	5.58	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	+1.2
Match result	Villarreal	15.7%	6.36	8.00 Betfair	12.5%	+3.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	90.0%	1.11	1.09 Betano	91.7%	-1.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	10.0%	10.00	9.50 BetVictor	10.5%	-0.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	73.7%	1.36	1.30 Betano	76.9%	-3.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	26.3%	3.81	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+1.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	53.4%	1.87	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-3.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	46.6%	2.15	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	+2.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	66.1%	1.51	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-0.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	33.9%	2.95	2.80 Betfair	35.7%	-1.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Real Madrid favoured against Villarreal

Our model makes Real Madrid 66% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 18% and Villarreal at 16%. The goal projection is 2.61 for Real Madrid against 1.23 for Villarreal — a commanding edge to Real Madrid on expected output. A combined 3.84 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 74% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Real Madrid is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 34% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 3-1 8%; 1-1 7%; 2-0 7%; 3-0 6%

This season

Season records for Real Madrid and Villarreal
Real Madrid		Villarreal
12	Played	12
10-0-2	W-D-L	4-3-5
2.50	Pts / game	1.25
2.58	Goals for / game	1.42
0.83	Goals against / game	1.25
83%	Over 2.5	58%
58%	BTTS	58%
33%	Clean sheets	17%
8%	Failed to score	33%
5-0-0	Home record	2-1-3
5-0-2	Away record	2-2-2
W5	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Real Madrid · Villarreal

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.0	Shots	17.6
6.0	Shots on target	5.9
4.7	Corners	7.5
2.76	Cards	2.08
8.1	Fouls	10.1
51	Possession %	62
2.22	xG	2.15
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.4	Shots	9.8
4.3	Shots on target	3.5
3.1	Corners	4.5
2.88	Cards	3.27
16.9	Fouls	11.8
49	Possession %	38
1.02	xG	1.06
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Real Madrid	Metric	Villarreal
2.00	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
2.50 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	2.39
	Big chances
6.80 (better)	Shots on target	6.60
17.60 (better)	Total shots	16.20
	Touches in opp. box
6.20	Corners	7.20 (better)
46.6	Possession %	59.4 (better)
461	Passes	592 (better)
	Tackles
9.60 (better)	Fouls	10.00
2.40 (better)	Offsides	2.80
	Throw-ins
1.80	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
0.50	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Real Madrid wins: 3
Draws: 0
Villarreal wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

La Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona	12	11	0	1	+35	33	Barcelona won 4 of the last 5
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	+21	30	Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5
3	Atletico Madrid	12	9	1	2	+13	28	Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	+5	26	Real Betis won 3 of the last 5
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	+1	22	Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-2	18	Sevilla won 1 of the last 5
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5
8	Villarreal	12	4	3	5	+2	15	Villarreal won 2 of the last 5
9	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	+1	15	Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5
10	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	-13	14	Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5
11	Celta Vigo	12	2	7	3	0	13	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5
12	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-2	13	Alaves won 0 of the last 5
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	-1	12	Espanyol won 1 of the last 5
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5
15	Getafe	12	3	3	6	-10	12	Getafe won 1 of the last 5
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	-11	12	Osasuna won 1 of the last 5
17	Levante	12	2	5	5	-5	11	Levante won 1 of the last 5
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Elche won 1 of the last 5
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	-12	9	Valencia won 1 of the last 5
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Malaga won 0 of the last 5