Real Ávila won 0 of the last 1D0–01–0 aetUnionistas de Salamanca won 0 of the last 1D
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Real Ávila
Unionistas de Salamanca
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Shots
—
—
Shots on target
—
—
Corners
—
—
Fouls
—
4
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
—
Possession %
—
—
xG
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36%
26%
38%
1 · Real ÁvilaXUnionistas de Salamanca · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
34%
Both score
60%
Model pick
Unionistas de Salamanca 38%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.49
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Real Ávila
36.0%
2.77
3.10 Bet365
32.3%
+3.8
Match result
Draw
25.7%
3.89
3.50 Betfair
28.6%
-2.8
Match result
Unionistas de Salamanca
38.2%
2.62
2.39 Dafabet
41.8%
-3.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.7%
1.25
1.31 BetVictor
76.3%
+3.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.3%
4.93
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
-8.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
56.3%
1.78
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
+5.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
43.7%
2.29
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
-7.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
33.9%
2.95
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
+4.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
66.1%
1.51
1.33 Bet365
75.2%
-9.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.8%
1.67
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
+2.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.2%
2.49
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
-7.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Real Ávila v Unionistas de Salamanca: too close to call
Our model makes Real Ávila 36% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 26% and Unionistas de Salamanca at 38%. The goal projection is 1.44 for Real Ávila against 1.49 for Unionistas de Salamanca — almost nothing to Unionistas de Salamanca on expected output. A combined 2.94 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-2 9%
2-1 8%
0-1 7%
1-0 7%
This season
Season records for Real Ávila and Unionistas de Salamanca
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Real Ávila
Metric
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.00
Goals scored
1.20 (better)
1.40
Goals conceded
0.80 (better)
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Expected goals (xG)
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—
Big chances *
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—
Shots on target
—
—
Total shots
—
—
Touches in opp. box *
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—
Corners
—
—
Possession %
—
—
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
—
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Real Ávila v 
Unionistas de Salamanca